Mali Crisis Threatens to Engulf the Sahel Region

Nearly nine months since rebel groups imposed a fuel blockade on Mali's capital, Bamako, the conflict escalated dramatically in late April. The Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), linked to al-Qaeda, alongside members of the Tuareg separatist movement, coordinated attacks on Malian forces and their Russian allies (Africa Corps, formerly Wagner), killing Defense Minister Sadio Camara.

Rebel fighters seized control of military bases, recaptured the northern city of Kidal, and tightened the blockade on Bamako. This latest offensive is part of a series of long-running rebellions in the land the Tuareg call Azawad, encompassing Timbuktu, Taoudenit, Kidal, and Gao, where the Tuareg form the majority.

The current crisis has been worsened by the weakening of the Malian state after the 2021 coup and foreign intervention. Without serious efforts to resolve it, the instability could spread across the entire Sahel.

Since declaring independence from France in 1960, northern Mali has seen periodic upheaval as the Tuareg community demands self-determination. Fourteen years ago, Tuareg groups allied with al-Qaeda affiliates launched another rebellion. They captured several northern cities and, without French military intervention in 2013, might have reached Bamako.

Two French campaigns weakened the Tuareg movements and al-Qaeda-linked groups, leading them to negotiate with the government, culminating in the 2015 Algiers Accords.

A key provision of that deal was devolving power in Azawad, granting local leaders more authority. In return, the government secured territorial integrity, promising increased development in Azawad, integrating rebel fighters into the army, and appointing their leaders to political posts.

The accords maintained relative stability in Mali and the Sahel by defusing tensions and separatist calls. But peace proved short-lived. The government failed to deliver on commitments for northern development projects, among other challenges.

The situation worsened after Colonel Assimi Goita's military coup in 2021. France, Algeria, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) refused to recognize the new regime in Bamako. Consequently, in 2022 the junta expelled French troops, and by 2024 it abrogated the Algiers Accords. Instead of diplomacy, the government adopted a militarized approach to control the restive north.

These moves strained Mali's relations with Mauritania, Algeria, and France, with Bamako accusing them of providing logistical support to rebels and interfering in internal affairs. As a result, the Malian state weakened militarily and economically as coordination and trade with neighbors diminished.

JNIM and separatist movements exploited this. They aimed to strangle the capital by attacking key transport routes for imports and exports, disrupting fuel supplies from Senegal and Ivory Coast, and targeting Moroccan food trucks passing through Mauritania.

As in 2012, the alliance between Tuareg movements and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups proved effective. They defeated the Malian army, captured more territory, and operate freely near Bamako.

This time, foreign forces were unable to help Mali's military, as Russian allies were forced to retreat after the late-April attacks. Meanwhile, Turkey has increased its involvement in Mali amid rising instability. In early May, after the attacks on the army, Ankara signed several defense deals with the junta.

The danger is that the Mali crisis may not be limited to a political dispute between the government and separatists. It could draw in more foreign interventions as regional and global rivals pivot toward Mali. Moreover, the alliance between Azawadi movements and al-Qaeda-linked groups is a ticking time bomb. Their only common ground is seeking to overthrow the military regime in Bamako, making a future war between them in the north highly likely.

The Mali crisis inevitably has regional repercussions. The ongoing humanitarian emergency could trigger a large migration wave to Europe and North America. Continued instability in the north could open more space for extremist movements to expand attacks across the region. Thus, the Mali crisis could become a direct security threat to neighbors, the region, and the world.

In the current situation, no side can achieve a decisive military victory. Therefore, a solution can only come through dialogue and negotiation. Bamako must seriously address the grievances of the Tuareg community in the north and their demands. Neighbors and regional powers need to bring the parties to the negotiating table and seek a peaceful resolution. With the threat of regional spread, there is no time to waste.