Air Power, Conscription, and China's Backing: Myanmar's Military Regains the Upper Hand

Rebel fighters who withdrew from the town of Falam in Myanmar in April say they only abandoned the strategic town near the Indian border after running out of ammunition. They had endured a six-month offensive by the Myanmar military, including more than 2,500 airstrikes and a ground assault by about 1,000 soldiers. The fall of the town, which had been under opposition control for a year, marked a strategic victory for the military: Falam is home to the only airport in Chin State and controls a trade route to the Indian border.

Within weeks, three more towns in Chin had fallen, and by the end of May, the military declared control over the entire northern part of the state.

“Falam taught us an important lesson,” said Salai William Chin, a member of the Chin Brotherhood rebel group. “Capturing a town and holding it are very different challenges,” he said, noting that maintaining control requires manpower, logistics, administration, and “the ability to withstand repeated attacks, especially from the air.”

But he vowed to keep fighting. “I will not measure success solely by whether we permanently hold every town,” he told Al Jazeera. “Where the military has a significant advantage, especially through air power, mobile warfare can sometimes be more effective. The key is to preserve forces, protect civilians, and maintain the ability to continue the struggle.”

‘A War of Attrition’

The retreat is part of a larger reversal. Myanmar’s opposition – a loose alliance of militia forces and ethnic armed organizations opposing the military junta that seized power after the 2021 coup – is weakening. Victories in 2023 and 2024, when coordinated offensives stripped the military of dozens of towns, have now given way to a gradual withdrawal from urban centers that rebel forces had occupied.

Analysts attribute the shift to multiple factors: a sweeping conscription drive that has added tens of thousands of soldiers to the military’s ranks, a brutal airstrike campaign that has killed hundreds of civilians, and support from China, which has mediated ceasefires between the military and some powerful ethnic armed groups while also helping to cut off weapons supplies to other groups.

However, the military is unlikely to achieve “existential or politically decisive victories” over the opposition, said Su Mon, an analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED). She warned in a recent note that the country “faces a prolonged war of attrition” and a worsening humanitarian crisis in the coming months.

The war began after the military coup in February 2021, following the army’s brutal crackdown on unarmed protesters, and young people took up arms to form militia forces known as People’s Defense Forces (PDF). They were backed by powerful ethnic armed organizations controlling border regions, some of which have fought for autonomy since the country’s founding in 1948. According to ACLED, the conflict’s death toll has exceeded 100,000, while the United Nations says 3.9 million people are displaced and estimates that a third of the population needs humanitarian assistance.

Earlier this year, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 coup, presided over a tightly controlled election, with major opposition parties banned from participating and voting deemed impossible or boycotted in many parts of the country. He was sworn in as president in April, completing his transition from commander-in-chief to head of a nominally civilian government in Naypyidaw. Min Aung Hlaing now says his government wants to negotiate peace with armed opponents, including in Chin. But fighting continues.

Retaking Strategic Towns

The military launched new campaigns this year in Chin, Kachin, Kayin, and Rakhine states, and according to ISP-Myanmar, an independent think tank, it has recaptured 22 of the 101 towns lost after the coup. That figure represents 9% of lost territory, but these areas are strategically located and include key trade corridors linking border regions to central Myanmar, where the military’s main bases are situated.

Retaking these areas has disrupted the “economic and logistical capacity of many resistance groups,” according to Su Mon at ACLED. And “while the military has not yet fully restored its administration in these areas,” she wrote, “these victories have effectively hindered resistance coordination,” pushing opposition groups “from large-scale coordinated offensives to defensive guerrilla warfare.”

Myanmar’s military has trumpeted its battlefield victories. Speaking in Bangkok earlier this month, Min Aung Hlaing said Myanmar “is on the path to democracy and toward a better future,” while state media has showcased triumphant soldiers returning from campaigns.

Anthony Davis, a security analyst in Bangkok, said the conscription drive and China’s support are key factors for the military. Nearly 150,000 soldiers have been added to combat ranks since 2024 through forced conscription, he said, many with only basic training, but enough in numbers to advance. Pressure from China has pulled two powerful opposition forces – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army – out of the fight, allowing the military to redeploy troops elsewhere. Beijing has also pressured the United Wa State Army, one of Myanmar’s strongest ethnic armed groups, to stop selling weapons to opposition groups, contributing to nationwide ammunition shortages.

“The unchallenged air force has provided the military with a critical advantage from the start of the war,” Davis added, both in resupplying troops and conducting strikes against opposition forces. At the same time, “the rapid proliferation of drone technology in both reconnaissance and attack roles, along with improved battlefield coordination among forces, has all enhanced the military’s capabilities.”

Airstrike Campaign

The toll on civilians is immense. The Myanmar Internet Project counted 520 airstrikes between April and June, hitting 87 towns and killing at least 314 civilians, including 41 children. Chin State was hardest hit with 122 airstrikes, followed by Sagaing with 101 and Rakhine with 98.

Phil Robertson, director of Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, said “the resistance’s inability to counter the military’s air superiority” has sapped the morale of opposition forces. “The airstrikes demoralize the PDF and other resistance forces, and they also scatter civilians who support the insurgents,” he told Al Jazeera.

Nevertheless, anti-military forces insist the war is not over. Thinzar Shunlei Yi, an exiled activist, said opposition networks are still training organizers and building support. “Even in the face of mass atrocities, even in the face of grave violations, we still have the courage and integrity to resist and reject,” she said. “The people of Myanmar hold onto that spirit, and we will continue to move forward.”

In Chin, Salai William Chin remains resolute. “We have next steps, but it’s too early to speak publicly about them,” he said. “I won’t say the air force has permanently decided the battlefield. It remains a serious challenge, but war always evolves, and resistance forces continue to learn and adapt.”