Israel's Long-Term Plan for Gaza: Annexation and Ethnic Cleansing?

Two years after relentless bombardment and ground invasions, the future of Gaza seemed settled with the signing of President Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan on October 9, 2025. Under the deal, Israeli forces were to withdraw from the 'Yellow Line,' maintaining control over 58% of the territory, with a full pullout planned for an undetermined date.

But the withdrawal never happened. Instead, in the following months, Israel not only launched near-daily attacks on the strip, killing at least 922 people, but also expanded its controlled territory by about 11%. According to satellite data from March, Israel established at least 32 military outposts, a ground barrier, and infrastructure along a route considered temporary.

Since October last year, numerous humanitarian organizations, including Oxfam, have accused Israel of worsening the humanitarian crisis in Gaza by restricting aid and essential goods.

On May 27, 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to seize more Gaza territory. At a conference, he said: 'We are tightening the noose on Hamas; we now control 60% of the Gaza Strip — you know that. It was 50 before. My directive is to move forward…' He paused when someone in the crowd shouted '100!' He replied: 'Let's take it step by step. First 70. We are applying pressure from all sides, dealing with the rest.'

Observers believe Israel's long-term plan could be the complete annexation of Gaza. Michael Becker, professor of international human rights law at Trinity College Dublin, said: 'If Israel's ultimate plan is to maintain effective permanent control over the entire Gaza Strip, that is illegal annexation. As the International Court of Justice reaffirmed in its 2024 advisory opinion, annexation violates the principle prohibiting the acquisition of territory by force.'

Since the war began in October 2023, Israeli forces have killed at least 72,819 people, many of them women and children. By 2025, Israel had caused a confirmed famine in Gaza and destroyed nearly all infrastructure essential for life. Despite protests, Israel continues to participate in international sports and entertainment competitions without facing any meaningful international sanctions.

Hopes that the U.S. would enforce its conditions on Israel also appear unfounded. Since announcing the ceasefire last October, the U.S. has not reacted as Israel expanded and consolidated its presence in Gaza, cutting off residents' access to about two-thirds of the strip by April 2026.

On the viability of Gaza's population living in the shrinking territory, agencies like the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have expressed deep concern. Israel's answer is 'voluntary emigration' — a term used by ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, often understood as ethnic cleansing. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared: 'The plan for voluntary emigration from Gaza will also be implemented at the appropriate time.'

Becker concluded: 'The idea of permanently relocating Palestinians from Gaza smells of forced displacement and violates the basic right to self-determination of the Palestinian people, which is fundamental to the UN Charter.' However, he noted that international attention has shifted to the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran, and Israel's actions in Lebanon. 'While the Trump administration may be willing to diverge from Israel's interests in resolving the catastrophic U.S. war on Iran, the U.S. seems to have lost interest in Gaza. The role of the so-called Peace Council in maintaining a future for Palestinians in Gaza remains unclear.'