Kazakhstan's Early Parliamentary Election: Why It Matters

Kazakhstan will hold early parliamentary elections on August 23, a vote expected to consolidate the power of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The election comes just weeks after the Central Asian nation of 21 million, bordering Russia and China, reformed its legislative system by transitioning from a bicameral to a unicameral parliament.

Under the new rules, the new parliament, named Kurultai, will have 145 seats, and parties must win at least 5% of the total vote to enter. Before July 1, when the new constitution took effect, Kazakhstan had a bicameral parliament consisting of the Mazhilis (lower house) and the Senate. On the same day the new constitution took effect, President Tokayev signed a decree calling for early elections.

The Astana Times quoted officials as saying that under the old system, laws had to pass through the Mazhilis before moving to the Senate. Under the new model, the Kurultai focuses on reviewing legislation, and adopted laws are sent to the President. The new constitution also limits the presidency to a single seven-year term. However, when President Tokayev's current term ends, he will be eligible to run for a third term, as his tenure is reset from the start of the new legislative system.

Tokayev won the presidential election in 2022 with over 80% of the vote against five lesser-known rivals. International observers will attend Sunday's vote. The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly announced last week that nearly 80 parliamentarians and staff from about 30 countries would be deployed to monitor the election.

Seven Parties Contest

Seven political parties are contesting this year's election, including the newly formed Adilet party, Auyl, Aq Jol, the People's Party of Kazakhstan, the National Social Democratic Party, Baytaq, and Respublica.

Amanat, the party that has dominated Kazakhstan's political landscape since the 1990s, formally voted to dissolve and rebrand as Adilet (meaning "Justice"), a new party led by close aides of President Tokayev, aiming to distance itself from former Amanat leader Nursultan Nazarbayev. Nazarbayev, Tokayev's former mentor, served as president from 1991 to 2019, with a tenure marked by allegations of corruption, civil unrest, and authoritarianism.

Adilet campaigns on a "Fair Kazakhstan" platform, pledging to increase household incomes, strengthen the economy, improve public services, infrastructure, and digital transformation. Reuters reported that in and around Almaty, the country's largest city, election posters largely backing Adilet have been widespread for weeks. Polls suggest the new party could win a majority of votes, with many small opposition parties also seen as loyal to Tokayev.

The Aq Jol Democratic Party pledges to support businesses, Auyl champions rural communities, and Baytaq campaigns on environmental issues. Political analyst Rustam Burnashev told Reuters that the early election is an opportunity for Tokayev to sideline figures linked to Nazarbayev, but major reforms are unlikely. "All the parliamentary candidates are known," he said, "this parliament is unlikely to be groundbreaking."

Despite rapid economic growth in recent years, rising taxes and inflation have affected living standards. Atapsha, a 73-year-old fruit seller, shared: "I've waited 73 years for things to get better, but they're still not good. I still hope this year will be different."

Why It Matters

In 2022, Tokayev launched his "New Kazakhstan" reforms, including a referendum on legislative changes that took effect in July. Analysts say the upcoming election will determine whether the new leadership can adhere to the unicameral parliament and its foreign policy.

The election comes as Astana seeks to position itself as a democracy and a key power in Central Asia. Tokayev has focused on upgrading infrastructure, boosting the economy, and expanding ties with China and the EU. Kazakhstan has also strengthened relations with the U.S., signing a $4.2 billion deal with Wabtec in November 2025 to purchase 300 locomotive assembly kits for its national railway.

Traditionally pro-Russian, Kazakhstan has maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine war, calling for peace and offering to host negotiations during the U.S.-Iran conflict. According to the National Statistics Bureau, Kazakhstan's GDP grew 6.5% to about $335 billion in 2025. Researcher Nargis Kassenova wrote on the Belfer Center: "Kazakhstan is beginning to position itself as a middle power," given its strategic geopolitical location as a bridge between Europe, Russia, the Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia.

Oil-rich Kazakhstan accounts for about 2% of daily global crude supply, with most exports going to Europe via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to the Russian port of Novorossiysk.