Israel sowing seeds of division in Lebanon, experts warn

Beirut, Lebanon – Israeli attacks on Lebanon and pressure on the government to disarm Iran-backed Hezbollah are stoking internal tensions, analysts say.

Israel is leaning on those divisions as a deliberate strategy to provoke conflict among communities. According to experts, the strategy is working, as evidenced by a series of recent sectarian and political provocations.

“This is not a side effect [of the war]. They know exactly what they are doing,” Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera. “When they evacuate people from the southern suburbs, they are well aware that most of these people will pour into central Beirut and non-Shia Muslim areas. And certainly, I think this is their attempt to create sectarian tension and put more pressure on the Lebanese state.”

Destroying villages to pressure Lebanon

On March 2, Israel escalated its military campaign against Lebanon. This was the second escalation in two years, following a November 2024 ceasefire agreement that Israel violated more than 10,000 times, according to UN peacekeepers.

Although Israel continuously bombed southern Lebanon during the ceasefire, the attacks expanded to Beirut and other areas after Hezbollah retaliated for the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28.

Israel has killed more than 5,000 people in Lebanon since October 2023. In March, Israeli forces entered Lebanon for the second time since 2024, and are systematically destroying southern towns and villages. Israel has forcibly displaced 1.2 million people, ordering civilians to leave their homes in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

When the US-Iran ceasefire began on April 8, many Lebanese wondered whether they would be included. Israel answered decisively when it killed more than 350 people in a single day, with 100 attacks in less than 10 minutes across Lebanon.

The ceasefire was extended by Donald Trump, but Israel continued to attack southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah responded by engaging Israeli forces. Lebanon has agreed to direct negotiations with Israel to end the war and the occupation of southern Lebanon.

Domestically, Lebanon’s population and political class are deeply divided over the issue of negotiations with Israel. Hezbollah and its supporters oppose direct talks, preferring indirect negotiations, while the Lebanese government faces pressure from the US and Israel to engage in direct talks, even possibly a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese leaders.

“The Israelis are trying to pressure the Lebanese state,” Young said. “They destroy villages, push the Shia community into non-Shia majority areas, and this is certainly designed to increase sectarian tensions.”

Angry Birds

Israel’s stated goal is to disarm Hezbollah, but analysts say Israel knows well that this cannot be achieved by force alone.

“The goal remains an unknown because the Israelis know very well that the Lebanese army cannot disarm Hezbollah, and [the Israeli army] itself admits it cannot do this because it would require occupying all of Lebanon, which it has no intention of doing,” Young said.

This is why analysts believe Israel’s objective is to push Lebanon’s communities into confrontation, pressuring the state to concede. The strategy appears to have already increased internal tensions.

Provocative statements from both pro- and anti-Hezbollah officials have circulated in the media over the past two months. Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa and Mahmoud Qamati both warned the Lebanese government that the decision to ban the group’s military activities would be reversed.

Some right-wing Christian lawmakers have made provocative statements praising the Israeli army.

LBCI, a Lebanese TV channel founded by the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces in the 1980s but now independent, stirred controversy by publishing a cartoon depicting Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and some members as characters from the video game ‘Angry Birds’. Some Hezbollah supporters responded by posting provocative images of Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai on social media.

“These media provocations are unfortunately part of a plan to distort the image of the resistance [Hezbollah] and serve the Israeli and American enemy through a media campaign targeting the resistance and targeting Sheikh Naim Qassem,” Qassem Kassir, a pro-Hezbollah journalist, told Al Jazeera.

“Of course, there were reactions from supporters of the resistance regarding Patriarch Rai, although Hezbollah leadership, the Supreme Islamic Shia Council, and Dar al-Ifta al-Jaafari issued statements condemning this,” Kassir added, referring to Shia religious bodies in Lebanon.

Dilemma

According to Young, the internal squabbles are a consequence of Israel’s war, which has partly provoked factions and divided Lebanese society over the conflict. Notably, Hezbollah is trying to regain influence it lost since November 2024, after a campaign that saw Israel inflict heavy damage and kill its iconic leader Hassan Nasrallah.

But there is a real division over the war, reflected in many public comments in Lebanon.

“No one can control people or their reactions,” Kassir said. “Of course, this raises concerns about an atmosphere of conflict, but no one today has an interest in inciting conflict.”

As long as the war continues, such statements and incidents will increase. Analysts say Israel is counting on this to force the Lebanese government to accept its peace terms.

“What the Israelis are really doing is just trying to build political credibility and possibly impose what they want on Lebanon and justify this to the Americans,” Young said. “They want to create dilemmas for the Lebanese state. And when the Lebanese state cannot react, Israel can start imposing its own solutions.”