Is Israel Really Ready to Withdraw from Gaza?

US President Donald Trump expressed satisfaction after Hamas agreed to hand over weapons in Gaza under a disarmament deal announced on Thursday. However, the agreement's terms also require Israel to withdraw its forces from the Palestinian territory and gradually transfer power to a Palestinian administration—conditions that have met with a cool reception from Israel's political establishment and press.

Israel's government has not officially commented, but a senior unnamed official said there would be no withdrawal from current positions until Hamas actually disarms, as assessed by Israel. Meanwhile, Trump claimed Israel is "very pleased" with the deal.

Domestic Political Pressure

Many Israelis maintain a hardline stance toward Palestinians following Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, despite Israel's military campaign in Gaza having killed over 73,000 Palestinians and devastated the territory. A May poll showed 82% of Israeli Jews surveyed supported forced expulsion of Palestinians from their homes in Gaza; 64% believed "no one is innocent" among Palestinians in Gaza.

Some politicians, including government ministers, have declared that illegal Jewish settlements, similar to those in the West Bank, would soon be built in Gaza. Thus, the prospect of Israel withdrawing and moving toward Gaza's reconstruction is seen by many as unacceptable.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir condemned the disarmament deal as "unacceptable." On social media, he wrote that committing to stop assassinating Hamas militants means agreeing to let the organization prepare for the next massacre, while calling for continued assassinations and "encouraging migration." The term "encouraging migration" is widely understood to refer to ethnic cleansing.

Centrist politicians, such as former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot—Netanyahu's main rival in the upcoming election—also voiced skepticism. He called any deal that fails to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas's military-political power a "complete failure," noting that Hamas's capabilities have nearly been restored.

Netanyahu's Tough Calculus

Prime Minister Netanyahu has not commented on the new deal. According to pollster Dahlia Scheindlin, Netanyahu's calculations are not about public sentiment but purely political. He will primarily be concerned with the views of his current coalition partners. Withdrawing from Gaza is seen as impossible, but he also needs to avoid alienating the US—an ally increasingly showing impatience with Israel.

An unnamed US official said Trump would be "very, very disappointed" if Israel fails to honor the deal. Professor Dov Waxman (UCLA) noted that Netanyahu would face significant difficulty forming a government if he agrees to these terms. Netanyahu may need to maintain good relations with Trump to secure support in the election, including on issues like pardons or normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia.

Managing US expectations is a challenge not only for Netanyahu but for every politician running. Netanyahu has skillfully dodged US demands regarding Gaza while preserving his far-right coalition. According to analyst Nimrod Goren, Netanyahu could create symbolic announcements and signing ceremonies to please Trump without actually withdrawing troops. "I think withdrawal goes against his entire philosophy and worldview that Israel needs to be present beyond its borders. If anything, I see him escalating before the election rather than talking about withdrawal," Goren said.