Iran deeply suspicious of US as it weighs deal to end war

Tehran, Iran – “The fundamental principle is distrust of the US.” That was how senior lawmaker Abbas Moghtadaei described the situation on state television Tuesday, after an Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf returned from Qatar in an effort to reach an agreement with Washington to end the nearly three-month war.

Hours earlier, Iran's Foreign Ministry accused Washington of a “blatant violation” of the fragile ceasefire reached on April 8 by striking Hormozgan Province in the south Monday evening. The ministry said the attacks confirmed “Iran's deep-seated suspicion” of the US.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its armed forces retaliated and shot down a US-made RQ-4 drone using a domestically built air defense system called Arash-e Kamangir – named after a Persian mythological hero. State television broadcast footage of the wreckage of a downed drone.

The US military said it was striking missile launchers and Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines at sea as a “defensive” move, but IRGC commanders said they had the right to retaliate.

On Tuesday afternoon, an oil tanker reported an external explosion and fuel leak about 60 nautical miles (111 km) east of Oman's capital Muscat, according to British maritime intelligence. Iranian officials did not comment on the incident.

The escalation comes as the two sides try to finalize the details of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoM) that could facilitate shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely frozen since the US and Israel launched a series of attacks on Iran on February 28. The deal would also allow Iran access to some overseas funds frozen under US sanctions and outline a path for a future agreement on its nuclear program.

Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po's Center for International Studies, said many in Iran's leadership appear to worry that an agreement might only create an operational pause, intelligence access, or political cover before the US and Israel launch another large-scale attack on the country.

“For a deal to be politically sellable at home, Tehran may need to present it not as a surrender under military pressure, but as a managed stability that preserves core red lines,” she told Al Jazeera. “That means maintaining some enrichment capacity for now, avoiding an immediate surrender of its stockpile, ensuring meaningful sanctions relief or asset unfreezing, and preserving regional deterrence structures, at least formally outside the agreement.”

'Negotiating with the enemy is a loss'

From relatively moderate politicians in the government to the most hardline military-security factions, all are committed that the Islamic Republic will not accept a deal that leads to “surrender.”

President Masoud Pezeshkian told state television earlier this week that he wanted to reassure the international community that “we are not pursuing nuclear weapons, we are not pursuing regional instability.” But Majid Mousavi, the influential IRGC air force commander, wrote on X, referring to the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “As our martyr leader said, negotiating with the enemy is a loss.”

Mousavi said he would obey the orders of the country's new supreme leader, Khamenei's son Mojtaba, who said in a message marking the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha on Tuesday that “countries and territories in the region will no longer be a shield for US bases.” He also predicted that Israel would no longer exist within 15 years, as his father had prophesied.

Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters and a top figure in the war, appeared publicly for the first time on Monday to call on Iran's armed forces to prioritize “defeating” the enemy.

“The Americans talk too much and constantly change their story. We have said many times that we will show on the battlefield what we can do,” he told state television on the sidelines of a ceremony in Tehran commemorating Iranian leaders killed in the war.

In his first public message as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, released Monday, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, also a senior IRGC general, vowed “there will be no retreat.” IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi also expressed readiness to resume military confrontations with the US if necessary.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said policymakers in Tehran worry not just about a “bad deal” but one that could force Iran to give up key leverage in case of future disputes. “Hardliners are particularly nervous about any discussion involving Hormuz, the sequencing of sanctions removal, or nuclear concessions, because they increasingly view coercive leverage, particularly maritime pressure, as Iran's main post-war bargaining asset,” he told Al Jazeera.

For a deal to work, Iran's leadership would need to believe that some sanctions relief would be tangible and quick, he added. Iran would also seek to preserve enough deterrence and symbolic dignity to avoid being seen as a failure, and ensure the agreement prevents another war from erupting in the future.

But as it stands – and little is known about it – Vatanka said the emerging memorandum “looks like a ceasefire management mechanism designed to buy time, reduce immediate war risks, partially reopen Hormuz, and defer the hardest nuclear issues to later rounds rather than a historic peace accord.” That means lingering suspicion and instability would persist.

Assassination fears

Analysts on Iranian state media also suggested that senior Iranian figures would be vulnerable to assassination if military operations resume. “If the US, at any point in the current deal negotiations, gained access to our supreme leader, they would strike without regard to other interests or intermediaries like Pakistan and Qatar,” Nima Akbarkhani, an analyst affiliated with the IRGC, said on state television Tuesday. Ali Samadzadeh, another state-linked analyst, argued the emerging US-Iran deal might even be a “honey trap” plan to lure leaders out.

According to US media, Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard in public since the war began except through what are said to be his written messages, is hiding in an undisclosed safe location that even many government officials cannot access. US officials say this has slowed negotiations.

Grajewski of Sciences Po said that in the coming days, the main issue for the Islamic Republic will be securing internal approval. Hardline factions will also scrutinize any concessions to the US, even those made as part of a crisis-management memorandum that leaves more difficult issues for later talks. “So the realistic outcome in the short term is probably a provisional and unstable arrangement rather than a comprehensive solution,” she said. “Whether it evolves into something more durable depends almost entirely on whether subsequent nuclear negotiations produce specific mechanisms both sides can live with.”