Analysts: Syria Airbase Strike Sends Israel's Message to Damascus and Ankara

Tuesday's strike on an airbase in northwestern Syria is believed to have been carried out by Israel. According to analysts, it was not only a message to the Damascus government but also aimed at their ally, Turkey.

Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, but Syria, the United States, and Jordan have all confirmed the attack on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib province as the latest Israeli airstrike against its neighbor.

"Striking an airbase means the Israeli military does not want the new Syria to have any kind of air force in the coming years," Kheder Khaddour, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera.

Israel's Message to Damascus

On December 8, 2024, Syrian rebel forces captured Damascus, toppling the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In the hours that followed, the Israeli air force attacked Syrian military bases and infrastructure, with airstrikes reportedly destroying much of the new government's air defense systems.

Israel also seized areas in Syria's Golan Heights and illegally occupied the strategic point of Jabal al-Sheikh. Since then, Israel has set up checkpoints on Syrian territory, where they harass and sometimes kidnap Syrian citizens.

In March 2025, Israel struck two Syrian airbases – T4 in Homs and the Palmyra airbase – which Reuters reported had previously been visited by Turkish military delegations. In July of the same year, Israel bombed the Syrian Ministry of Defense in central Damascus.

Israeli officials have repeatedly stated they consider Syria's new government a threat, even though the government has moved closer to the West, including the United States. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has also repeatedly warned Syria not to deploy troops south of Damascus – near Israel's border – despite the new government's repeated declarations that it does not seek confrontation with Israel.

"Syria is not a threat to Israel, and there have been months of talks about a security agreement between the two neighbors," Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera. "Since the fall of the al-Assad regime, Syrians have made it very clear they are interested in peaceful relations with Israel, and that should be taken seriously."

No casualties were reported in Tuesday's strike. Nanar Hawach, a senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group, said only the runway and storage facilities were damaged, with no fighter jets destroyed.

Many analysts believe Israel is trying to send a message that Syria should not rebuild its air force, which it has taken steps toward by repairing facilities, aircraft, and training new personnel.

"Israel is not happy with Syria having a functioning air force," Samy Akil, a senior advisor at The Syria Report, told Al Jazeera. However, he noted that the remaining aircraft in the Syrian air force's arsenal pose little threat to Israel.

Turkey's Role

Analysts also believe Israel's strike was likely a message aimed at Turkey.

Turkey backed several rebel groups fighting Assad throughout the war and continues to maintain a military presence in northern Syria.

"Abu al-Duhur is close to Idlib and lies deep within Turkey's sphere of influence," Akil said.

Israel has previously expressed concerns and objections to Turkey's influence in Syria. Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to have held security consultations about Ankara's role in Syria and emphasized the threat from Turkey, which has the second-largest military in NATO after the United States.

Naftali Bennett, Israel's former prime minister and a candidate to replace Netanyahu in the upcoming October elections, has called Turkey the "new Iran."

Navvar Saban, a security and military researcher at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies, compared the Abu al-Duhur attack to Israel's March 2025 airstrikes on airbases.

Reuters reported that Turkish military teams had visited those airbases before the March attack, though neither the Syrian nor Turkish governments confirmed the information.

"The airstrike is probably less about eliminating an immediate military threat from Syria and more focused on preventing the creation of future military capabilities," Saban said. "Israel appears to be drawing a red line around the reconstruction of Syria's military infrastructure, especially where Turkish assistance could improve Syria's air capabilities or limit Israel's freedom of operation over Syrian airspace."