Global Wheat Prices Surge Amid Conflict and Extreme Weather

World wheat prices have risen sharply due to disruptions in Black Sea export supplies, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and changing weather patterns cause severe drought that is cutting production significantly.

Over the past month, Russia and Ukraine have intensified strikes on each other's grain ports in the Black Sea. With Russia being the world's largest wheat exporter and Ukraine among the top 10 grain-producing countries, these attacks have significantly impacted global wheat and grain supplies.

Chicago wheat futures, the global benchmark for the grain market, hit a three-year high on Friday before easing 0.54% on Monday to $7.79 per bushel at 02:00 GMT. Russia's Rostov region declared a state of emergency on Friday after reporting that port closures and shipping disruptions in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea basin had left agricultural products stranded at farms.

Meanwhile, soaring temperatures and lack of rain threaten to cut this year's wheat output in South Africa's Swartland, a region that produces about 20% of the country's wheat.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on prices

Over the past month, attacks on ports, ships, and grain facilities amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict have disrupted grain terminals and forced shipping companies to delay or cancel loading during the peak export season.

While Russian missile attacks affect Ukraine's grain exports, Ukrainian drone strikes in the Sea of Azov have also sharply reduced Russian grain and wheat shipments. At the same time, attacks on Russia's Novorossiysk and Taman ports have increased shipping costs from its Black Sea ports.

According to Ukraine's Ministry of Infrastructure, in July, Ukraine suffered 35 Russian attacks on ships at ports, 22 at sea, and 67 on port facilities. By comparison, the total number of attacks on ships in the entire year of 2025 was just 14.

On Friday, Ukraine's Agriculture Minister said recent Russian airstrikes had destroyed about 90% of food logistics for retailers. Restricted wheat shipments are keeping prices high, raising concerns about food insecurity worldwide.

Joe Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, noted that the issue is not the amount of wheat produced but the cost of delivering it to buyers and consumers.

“There is a lot of wheat in Russia and Ukraine, and eventually that wheat will come to market. But right now it cannot come out, or it comes out at a very high cost, and wheat prices have reflected that,” he told Al Jazeera.

“There is a lot of wheat in the world … it is not a problem of availability, it is a problem of affordability,” he added.

Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, typically spends about $3 billion annually on wheat imports. In the first half of 2026, the country imported over 82% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

In Asia, Indonesia – the second-largest wheat importer – purchased $361 million worth of wheat from Ukraine and $102 million from Russia during 2023-2024, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Indonesia typically imports 15% to 20% of its wheat from these two countries.

An official from the Indonesian Flour Mills Association told Reuters last week that current supplies can meet immediate food wheat demand. “But we don't have abundant or surplus supplies. We have to look to other sources like Bulgaria, Australia, Romania and Argentina for shipments not coming from Russia and Ukraine,” the official said.

How is climate change contributing?

Beyond the war in Ukraine, drought and drier weather conditions have affected wheat production and contributed to higher prices.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of July 1, the U.S., one of the largest wheat exporters, is projected to see “46.7 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month and down 8.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre.”

“If this occurs, U.S. yields will be the lowest since 2015,” the USDA said.

In an August 14 update, the department wrote: “This year's smaller crop is a result of the long-term decline in U.S. wheat acreage and widespread drought impacts on hard red winter wheat production in the Great Plains states. Total wheat supplies are projected down 13 percent from last year, with larger beginning stocks softening the impact of the smaller crop.”

For Canada, the world's sixth-largest wheat producer, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts 2026-2027 total production at 34.6 million tonnes, also 13% lower than the previous year, due to reduced acreage and yields returning to below-average levels.

With heatwaves hitting European countries over the past three months, wheat production in the bloc has also suffered. According to COCERAL, the European association for trade in cereals, oilseeds, rice, pulses, olive oil, oils and fats, animal feed and agricultural supplies, excessive temperatures are expected to reduce 2026 grain output by about 9 million tonnes to 286 million tonnes.

In a July report, COCERAL said: “Weather has already started to impact maize pollination in the southern half of France and Hungary. Further damage is expected from forecast heatwaves in other EU regions.”

El Nino weather patterns are also forecast to bring drier-than-normal conditions to the Southern Hemisphere this year, with South Africa and Australia expected to experience drought.

What can be done to mitigate?

While the Russia-Ukraine war continues, in July 2022, when the war began, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was brokered to allow safe exports of grain, food, and fertilizer from Ukrainian ports to stabilize and lower global food prices.

While that deal held, more than 1,000 ships carrying grain and other food left Ukraine, according to the EU. However, Russia terminated the agreement in July 2023.

According to experts, solutions to the current crisis are not straightforward.

Lowering prices now would require major shifts in the war strategies of both Russia and Ukraine, while the impacts of climate change could be mitigated if governments adopt policies including improving water management on farms through the use of reservoirs to support drought-stricken crops and reduce production losses.

Furthermore, Glauber explained that although there are alternative routes for shipping grain from Russia and Ukraine, they are costly, and a return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative “would go a long way toward stabilizing the wheat market.”

One possible solution is for other countries to step in and help. According to Glauber, during the global grain price spike in 2022, other wheat-producing countries like India exported more to compensate for the shortfall.

“India, for example, had record exports in 2022. This year is probably less likely, just because of El Nino and other factors affecting them, but they could also supply additional wheat. I think the world wheat market showed a lot of resilience in 2022, and I hope we will see the same in 2026,” he said.