Flávio Bolsonaro Dominates After First Round, Poised for Brazil Presidency

Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is in a commanding position in Brazil's presidential race after scoring a shock first-round victory over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, opening a seemingly irreversible path for the left.

According to first-round results, Flávio Bolsonaro won 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, while Lula, 80, took 53.8 million votes, or 45.16%. The outcome forces the two candidates into a runoff expected on October 25, with the advantage tilting toward Flávio Bolsonaro.

Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, no candidate who finished second in the first round has ever overturned the result to win the runoff. Political scientist Miguel Lago said the odds of Lula reversing the situation are very low, adding that Flávio Bolsonaro is unlikely to squander victory at this point.

A sweeping win for the Bolsonaro clan

The far-right wave not only lifted Flávio Bolsonaro to the front of the presidential race but also delivered widespread victories for the family and political allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro, 71. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for an alleged coup plot after losing to Lula in the 2022 election.

In this election, four relatives of the former president won seats in Congress. His wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, 44, secured a Senate seat. His second son, Carlos Bolsonaro, 43, was also elected to the Senate. His youngest son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, 28, and the former president's brother, Renato Bolsonaro, 62, both won seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

In state and congressional races across Latin America's largest democracy, many politicians loyal to the Bolsonaro movement also prevailed, including Tarcísio de Freitas, re-elected governor of São Paulo state, and Sérgio Moro, elected governor of southern Paraná state. Both served as ministers in Jair Bolsonaro's 2018-2022 administration.

Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) will hold the largest bloc in the Senate with 28 of 81 seats. Adding seats from other far-right parties brings the number to 43, giving the movement a Senate majority.

Meanwhile, several Senate candidates backed by Lula lost, including former Environment Minister Marina Silva, veteran leftist politician Benedita da Silva and centrist former Planning Minister Simone Tebet.

Two young social-media figures in the Bolsonaro movement, Nikolas Ferreira and Lucas Pavanato, became the most-voted lawmakers in Brazilian history, each with more than 3 million votes.

Political scientist Miguel Lago said the far right has been growing steadily election after election, and called this the worst result for Brazil's left and centrist parties since the late 1980s. According to Lago, in 2022 Lula managed to halt the advance of the Bolsonaro populist movement thanks to voters' positive memories of his first two terms (2002-2010), when a global commodity boom allowed his government to fund large welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty. But he described that as only a brief interruption.

Control of the Senate could allow pro-Bolsonaro politicians to pass an amnesty for the movement's leader, helping the former president leave the Brasília residence where he is under house arrest and reassert his leadership of the right. Lago said Jair Bolsonaro will likely be freed and continue to play a major role during Flávio's term, while Flávio runs the country.

A Senate majority could also help Bolsonaro's third son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, return from self-imposed exile in the United States. The 42-year-old has close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump's MAGA movement and was sentenced in absentia to four years in prison on a charge of coercion for lobbying the Trump administration to interfere in his father's trial. According to some sources, Eduardo Bolsonaro hopes to become foreign minister if his brother wins the presidency.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been accused of trying to influence the election in Bolsonaro's favor, has not commented on the first-round result, but on Truth Social he praised the speed of the vote count. Observers say a rightward tilt in Brazil would boost Trump's effort to expand the conservative wave in the region.

Argentine President Javier Milei, a close Trump ally in the region, called Flávio Bolsonaro's victory "historic" over "communist Lula." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also congratulated him and expressed a desire to restore Israel-Brazil relations.

Speaking after the first-round results were confirmed, Lula showed determination, saying he would launch a new campaign for the runoff and arguing that with only two candidates, voters will clearly see the differences between their proposals. He pledged to expose his opponent's dark past, including documented ties to organized crime in Rio de Janeiro and corruption allegations that Flávio Bolsonaro has denied.

However, the mood at Lula's post-election event was described as somber. Flávio Bolsonaro enters the runoff as the clear favorite, potentially benefiting from votes won by other right-wing candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Romeu Zema, who together took more than 5.5 million votes.

Santos said he will not endorse any candidate because he considers both Lula and Bolsonaro "crooks." Zema pledged to vote against Lula's Workers' Party (PT) in the runoff, while Caiado has not yet taken a position.

Lula's biggest hope may be persuading some of the record 33 million Brazilian voters who abstained in the first round to turn out in the runoff. Political scientist Camila Rocha, an expert on Brazil's new right, said this will be an extremely difficult task given political apathy, especially among voters not tied to the Bolsonaro movement who might vote for Lula.

According to Rocha, although Flávio Bolsonaro has held political office for more than 20 years, for many undecided voters his main selling point is a "renewal" image, despite corruption allegations and links to paramilitary groups.

Lago said only a major change in Lula's campaign, such as swapping candidates, or a serious scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro could change the election outcome, but he does not believe that will happen.