Fatah and Dahlan's faction hold reconciliation talks ahead of Palestinian elections

A high-level delegation from Fatah, the movement that dominates the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the Democratic Reform faction led by former senior official Mohammed Dahlan met in the Egyptian city of Alamein for crucial reconciliation talks ahead of Palestinian legislative elections.

The meeting, announced by the Democratic Reform faction on Monday, took place as Fatah's rivals — including Dahlan's group and Hamas — discuss forming a broad coalition that could pose a significant challenge to the party in the November elections.

Monday's meetings were chaired by PA Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh, a senior Fatah official, and Samir al-Mashharawi, deputy leader of the Democratic Reform faction.

Although al-Mashharawi described the initial atmosphere in Alamein as positive, he added that nothing “concrete” had been agreed and argued that PA President Mahmoud Abbas needs to make “decisive decisions” to unify Fatah. The Democratic Reform faction is largely made up of former Fatah officials who split due to disagreements with Abbas.

“All those who have suffered from unjust decisions within Fatah must have their rights restored,” al-Mashharawi said. He defended his faction's recent dialogues with other Palestinian factions, insisting that “any coalition in the upcoming elections is not aimed at Fatah or its leadership.”

Hamas official Husam Badran told Al Jazeera last week that the Palestinian group had met with officials from the Democratic Reform faction — as well as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — with the goal of forming a national bloc to participate in the elections, the first since 2006.

The meeting with Dahlan is notable because Hamas and the leaders of the Democratic Reform faction were rivals in Gaza for years, when Dahlan was one of Fatah's most powerful officials in the territory. That culminated in the 2007 conflict between Hamas and Fatah, which led to Fatah being pushed out of Gaza.

Coalition threat

The proposed anti-Fatah coalition has worried the movement's leadership and was a main driver behind Monday's meeting, according to political analyst Ahmed al-Tanani.

“The main goal of the Fatah delegation here is to neutralize Dahlan's participation in this coalition,” al-Tanani told Al Jazeera, adding that the prospect of a united opposition “complicates Abbas's calculations.”

Fatah's effort to prevent the coalition from forming shows the danger it poses. Any alliance would highlight divisions within Fatah, as the Democratic Reform faction is a breakaway group of Fatah and its members remain affiliated with the movement. A coalition could also rally various Palestinian factions in a common challenge to Abbas's leadership, who is now 90 years old and faces widespread opposition.

Gaza-based analyst Eyad al-Qarra said a Dahlan-Hamas electoral alliance would give Hamas more legitimacy to rule if it wins, even after it announced dissolving its administration in Gaza.

Dahlan could also present himself in a positive light internationally.

“This is an attempt to introduce Dahlan and his faction to regional and international parties as those who can achieve what Mahmoud Abbas cannot — reaching serious agreements with Palestinian factions across the political spectrum,” al-Tanani said.

Succession race

With Abbas's advanced age, the question of Fatah's succession plan is also raised, with Dahlan mentioned among potential candidates.

But al-Tanani said it is too early to say whether Monday's meeting could signal improved chances for Dahlan. He explained that absorbing the Democratic Reform faction “would amount to a broad internal coup and threaten the interests of the current leadership.”

Any form of reconciliation with Dahlan would also be bad news for other candidates for PA leadership, including Abbas's son Yasser, who won a seat on Fatah's Central Committee in May.

“If Dahlan returns, Yasser's chances would be worse,” al-Qarra said.

He added that current Fatah leaders fear a coalition of dissidents within the movement, including Dahlan, prominent leader Marwan Barghouti — who is held by Israel — and Nasser al-Qudwa, a veteran politician.

Samih Khalaf, a Palestinian writer and former Fatah member, agreed that Dahlan's return to Fatah would disrupt Yasser Abbas's rise.

“The Dahlan phenomenon is dangerous not only for an individual like the president but also for the president's preparation to transfer power to his son,” Khalaf said.

The problem for Yasser Abbas is that he would not be able to balance Dahlan's influence if the latter returns to Fatah, Khalaf added.

Mahmoud Abbas has never publicly stated that he plans for Yasser Abbas to succeed him as president.

Post-war governance

International pressure influenced Abbas's decision to return to elections, after he repeatedly postponed them for years.

The push for elections is part of a broader reform agenda backed by European and Arab governments, including an initiative by France and Saudi Arabia aimed at moving toward a two-state solution.

“The main driver for the Authority to move toward elections is primarily tied to the European roadmap, or at least the French-Saudi roadmap aligned with the European Union, to promote reform,” al-Tanani said.

For Dahlan, elections could bring more than that: a path back to formal Palestinian politics.

Al-Tanani said elections give Dahlan an opportunity to convert his continued influence — despite living in the United Arab Emirates for years — into formal political representation.

Dahlan “views the Palestinian elections as a golden opportunity to reestablish his position within the formal Palestinian political system,” al-Tanani said.

Khalaf made a similar argument.

“Only the ballot box and the regional and international dimension can play the biggest role in shaping the political system and its future leadership,” he said.

That calculation also helps explain what analysts describe as Hamas's increasingly pragmatic approach toward Dahlan.

“Hamas is smart,” al-Qarra said. “They work with everyone, including the Dahlan faction, especially since he has a role in negotiations, and his relationships with Europe, the UAE, Egypt, and the US are things that cannot be ignored.”

But even as preparations for elections get under way, questions remain about both how much they will change the existing balance of power and whether they will actually take place.

Al-Tanani stressed that Abbas still has leverage because of the power he holds.

“President Mahmoud Abbas, in his electoral decrees and decisions, has kept in his hands the power to appoint members of the [Palestinian] National Council, meaning the ability to overturn any majority that the legislative elections might produce,” he said, referring to the legislative body of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which represents Palestinians both inside and outside the Palestinian territories.

That means even if an opposition coalition wins a majority, Abbas could still prevent them from taking power in that body and thus in the PLO, which is internationally recognized as the representative of the Palestinian people.

And, al-Qarra pointed out, Abbas has another option — delaying the elections again, as he did in 2021.

“If he feels that this [opposition] coalition is a real threat that he will lose against, he will cancel or postpone the elections, and there are plenty of reasons and justifications,” he said.