Ethiopia and Eritrea Trade Accusations at UN as Tensions Raise Fears of Renewed Conflict

Ethiopia and Eritrea have exchanged accusations of aggression at the United Nations, raising fears of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa as fighting escalates in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray.

The diplomatic tensions come as Ethiopian forces and allied armed groups push through Tigray, where forces from Asmara are said to have crossed the border to back insurgents fighting government troops.

The two neighbors fought a bloody border war between 1998 and 2000 but were allies during Ethiopia's 2020-2022 Tigray war. Since then, however, they have clashed over the 2022 peace deal that ended the two-year civil war between the government in Addis Ababa and Tigrayan rebels, as well as Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea.

What did Ethiopia and Eritrea say at the UN?

Ethiopia told the UN Security Council on Friday that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60km (37 miles) into Tigray, accusing its neighbor of violating its sovereignty.

In a letter, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos described the alleged incursion as "a brazen act of aggression that touches on Ethiopia's inherent right of self-defense." He cited Article 51 of the UN Charter, which recognizes a state's right to self-defense, but did not specify what measures Ethiopia was taking.

Eritrea, which won independence from Ethiopia in 1993, rejected the claim that it had entered Ethiopia, calling it a pretext for an attack by Addis Ababa.

In a letter to the UN Security Council on Saturday, Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh urged the body to condemn Ethiopia's "reprehensible declaration of war" and take "deterrent measures." He warned that an Ethiopian attack would cause "enormous harm to the people of both countries and destabilize the entire region."

The accusations come amid a broader dispute over access to the Red Sea. Landlocked Ethiopia has repeatedly argued that securing direct sea access is essential, while Eritrea fears Addis Ababa intends to seize the port of Assab.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reaffirmed on Monday that Ethiopia must have access to the Red Sea.

Analyst Hossamaldeen Ibrahim of the Bloomsbury Institute for Intelligence and Security (BISI) said the positions of both countries contain "verifiable elements." "The danger lies in the fact that each side now views the other's position as an existential threat," he told Al Jazeera.

Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a bloody border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations improved after Abiy took power in 2018 but have deteriorated in recent years.

Professor Matthias Rompel of the Institute of Sociology at Justus Liebig University in Giessen, Germany, said both sides have legitimate security concerns, but accusations must be distinguished from independently verified facts. "Ethiopia's accusations that Eritrean troops entered Tigray ... and the scale of Eritrea's involvement, especially the claim that Asmara is organizing an insurgency against Addis Ababa, remain difficult to prove independently," he said.

He added that the latest developments show the confrontation is no longer only about Tigray. "Ethiopia's Red Sea ambitions, Eritrea's sovereignty concerns and Egypt's strategic rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile are interconnected," he said. "The conflict could therefore destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, with implications for Sudan, Somalia and Red Sea security."

What is the latest fighting about and how is Eritrea alleged to be involved?

Fighting escalated on September 23 when a rebel alliance including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks against Ethiopian government forces across Tigray, Amhara and Afar. The rebels seized the Tigrayan capital Mekelle and its airport before announcing a withdrawal on October 3. Pro-government forces then moved into the city.

According to Ermiyas Ababu, commander of the pro-government Tigray Peace Force, government and allied forces captured Idaga Hamus on Friday morning and Abiy-Adi in the Tembien area on Thursday afternoon. Residents, cited by Reuters, also reported the capture of Idaga Hamus. Gebremedhin Kihishen, a businessman in Tembien, said pro-government forces controlled Abiy-Adi.

It is unclear from these sources who controlled the towns immediately before the reported government advance, or whether Eritrean troops took part in the fighting. Ermiyas previously reported Eritrean personnel in Adigrat on Tuesday and Idaga Hamus on Wednesday, citing his staff. Al Jazeera could not independently verify the claims.

The US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), a conflict monitor, reported that Eritrean troops crossed into Ethiopia near Zalambessa and were struck by Ethiopian drones as they advanced toward Idaga Hamus. Eritrea has not commented on the development.

Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of funding, arming and directing armed groups, as well as deploying troops in Tigray. Eritrea denies the accusations, which have not been independently verified.

The renewed fighting threatens to unravel the 2022 peace deal. That conflict began in November 2020 after months of tension between the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy took office in 2018.

Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF, its longtime foe. The war killed hundreds of thousands of people and was marked by allegations of massacres, sexual violence and widespread starvation. The November 2022 Pretoria agreement ended major fighting, but Eritrea was not a party to the deal. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara deteriorated afterward.

Is Ethiopia moving troops north toward Eritrea?

Multiple media reports said Ethiopian government troops and allied militia entered Adigrat, a strategic city about 30km (19 miles) from the Eritrean border, on Saturday. Three residents confirmed their presence to Reuters, while verified footage showed members of pro-government militia passing through the city.

Footage from the Associated Press also showed Ethiopian military vehicles entering Adigrat as some residents welcomed them. Pro-government forces reported capturing Idaga Hamus and Abiy-Adi, while explosions and allegations of drone strikes were reported near Adigrat.

Are Ethiopia and Eritrea moving closer to war?

Analysts warn Ethiopia and Eritrea may have moved past the stage of threats and entered a dangerous phase of military confrontation. BISI's Ibrahim said the two countries have gone beyond "moving closer" to war, noting: "The situation has entered a high-risk phase of direct but limited military confrontation, with a real potential to escalate rapidly into interstate war."

He warned that the severing of diplomatic ties has removed the "last formal crisis-management mechanism," while Ethiopian military moves toward the Eritrean border increase the risk of "miscalculation."

Tom Gardner, a correspondent for The Economist, said the current tensions must be understood against decades of hostility between the two neighbors. Their brief alliance in the 2020-2022 Tigray war was an exception, driven by shared hostility toward the TPLF, Gardner told Al Jazeera. "The number one strategic goal of the Ethiopian government is Red Sea access, but it is also to remove the Eritrean government from the picture," he noted. "This looks very much like the most dangerous moment for the region since the 1998-2000 war."

Rompel of Justus Liebig University Giessen said the situation is still unfolding. "The risk of a wider interstate conflict is real, and the situation has moved beyond purely diplomatic confrontation," he said. "The central danger is not necessarily that either government has decided to launch all-out war, but that military miscalculation, mutual distrust and domestic political pressure could spark an escalation that neither side can easily control. Wider conflict is not inevitable, but the space for diplomatic de-escalation is narrowing fast."