Ethiopia Sets June 1 Election, PM Abiy Ahmed's Party Expected to Win Big

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Ethiopia's national election date has been set for June 1, 2026. Observers forecast Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party (PP) will secure a decisive victory amid deep opposition divisions and protracted violence in several regions.

In the capital Addis Ababa, authorities have cordoned off major thoroughfares, including the central Meskel Square, to stage large rallies supporting the ruling party. Opposition parties, conversely, say they have been denied permits to hold similar gatherings.

Henok Gebre-Selassie, 29, a contract delivery driver for a government agency, said he attended a major campaign rally this week after being ferried from his workplace to the site early in the morning, despite harboring many grievances against the administration. He shared that he felt he would be ostracized in the office if he did not join colleagues who were pressured to attend amid fears of losing public-sector jobs.

“This government has waged endless wars while famine remains a huge challenge, yet they focus on building parks and skyscrapers while pushing many of us to peripheral suburbs with poor infrastructure,” Henok said.

Election in the Shadow of Conflict

Ethiopia's Electoral Commission says more than 50 million people have registered to vote in a population of at least 130 million. Critics, however, contest this figure, noting that vast parts of the country remain affected by conflict in the Amhara and Oromia regions, as well as lingering unrest after the Tigray war.

Some of Ethiopia's most populous areas—including Amhara, Oromia, Gambella and Tigray—are still unstable after the civil war that ended in 2022, which killed about 600,000 people and displaced millions.

“The vote is largely a symbolic exercise to legitimize the incumbent's power,” said Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at Oslo New College University and an Ethiopia expert. “Multi-party elections in Ethiopia have never been a genuine contest with the possibility of a change in government, neither under the EPRDF nor under the PP.”

Tigray Exclusion Raises Concerns

“With the exclusion of Tigray, the challenge is even greater than it appears,” Tronvoll said, arguing that this reflects Ethiopia's political and territorial crisis. He stressed it is a consequence of the federal government's lack of territorial control and the erosion of federal authority over regional political institutions.

Many opposition voices have been pushed out of the formal political space, while armed movements operate across the Amhara, Oromia and other regions. Tigray has been completely excluded from the election, as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)—a once-influential political force now banned in the region—consolidates its power, raising fears of a new confrontation with the federal government and broader instability in the Horn of Africa.

Allegations of Intimidation and Pressure

Some opposition parties say they are contesting the election only to protect their operating licenses, fearing revocation if they boycott. Opposition leader Mistresilasie Tamerat, 23, head of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party (EPRP), said she has repeatedly been denied permits and venues for rallies—an issue also highlighted by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), a state-established rights body.

“I believe democracy is possible for Ethiopian politics, but not without tireless efforts and an honest confrontation with reality,” Tamerat said. For her and many opposition figures and journalists deemed unfriendly to the government, risks include detention and imprisonment, with many forced to leave the country.

Media Under Scrutiny

Most of Ethiopia's media outlets and journalists have been warned not to report critically on the upcoming election, while the media regulator has faced criticism for actions against the press, including expelling journalists and imposing restrictions on publications such as The Economist and The Africa Report.

This week, the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) called on the government to “take concrete steps, in the short and long term, to protect human rights defenders, restore civil society space and ensure an electoral environment consistent with Ethiopia's constitution and international human rights obligations.”

According to Reporters Without Borders' 2025 Press Freedom Index, Ethiopia now ranks 145th out of 180 countries, alongside Eritrea, North Korea and Iran near the bottom. The leading opposition online magazine Addis Standard had its license revoked, while the country's largest-circulation newspaper, The Reporter, was warned to align its coverage with government narratives.

The government has invited only a handful of international observers, primarily from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), whom critics say have limited influence in assessing the election's fairness.

Subdued Campaign Atmosphere

In the days before the election, the mood in the capital Addis Ababa was subdued. There were few campaign signs except those of the ruling party, and virtually no other political activity, reflecting a public mood weighed down by double-digit inflation and a wave of displaced people fleeing unrest elsewhere in the country. Residents say even music deemed critical of the government—including songs by popular artist Teddy Afro—is increasingly absent from public spaces and airwaves.

For Yosef Asnake, a 41-year-old public school teacher, the election is the last thing on his mind. Speaking at a coffee shop in Addis Ababa, he questioned why the government is spending heavily on what he described as a public relations exercise rather than a genuinely competitive election. “What's the point of voting and wasting time when the government will win anyway, while urgent issues like war, conflict and famine continue to be ignored?” he asked.