Ethiopia Prepares for National Election Amid Persistent Ethnic Conflict

Ethiopia is set to hold a national election on June 1, marking the country's first nationwide ballot since the Tigray war officially ended. The two-year conflict from 2020 to 2022 concluded with a peace deal between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

With a population of about 135 million, Ethiopia is Africa's second-most populous country and the world's 10th. Over 50.5 million voters have registered for the five-yearly election, which will decide 547 parliamentary seats. Since 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has led the country; his Prosperity Party holds 457 of the 547 seats. The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) expects to announce official results on June 11.

Ethiopia is a landlocked nation in the Horn of Africa covering 1,104,300 square kilometers, bordering Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, and Djibouti. It has achieved significant economic growth over the past two decades, with the IMF forecasting a 9.2% expansion by 2026, the highest on the continent. However, persistent challenges remain, including high inflation (11.7% as of April 2026), foreign currency shortages, and the burden of post-war reconstruction.

The country has five official languages: Afar, Amharic, Oromo, Somali, and Tigrinya. About two-thirds of the population is Christian, one-third Muslim, with small communities of Ethiopian Jews and followers of traditional beliefs.

Ethnic Groups

Ethiopia is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world, with more than 80 distinct groups. The Oromo are the largest, accounting for about 35% of the population, concentrated in the south and center. The Amhara are the second largest, around 24%, historically a politically dominant group. Other groups include the Somali (7%) in the east, Tigrayans (6%) in the northern Tigray region, and Sidama (4%) in the southern highlands.

This diversity is reflected in the political structure: Ethiopia is divided into 12 regional states and two chartered cities (Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa), each organized around a dominant ethnic group — a system introduced in 1992 and formalized in the 1994 constitution.

Armed Violence Across the Country

Ethiopia has been nearly continuously in conflict since 2020, on multiple fronts. The Tigray war from 2020 to 2022 pitted the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and its ally Eritrea against Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and spilled into the Afar and Amhara regions. The conflict ended with the Pretoria peace deal in November 2022, but the situation remains fragile. In January 2026, fighting flared again between the TPLF and government forces, threatening the fragile peace.

In Oromia, conflict between Oromia regional forces, the ENDF, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) from 2019 to the present has killed thousands of civilians. The OLA, which demands autonomy for the Oromo people, has also attacked Amhara living in Oromia and border areas. Despite a December 2024 peace deal between the federal government and one OLA faction, government forces have continued abductions and attacks on civilians, including airstrikes and drone strikes.

In Amhara, militia forces that once fought alongside the federal army in the Tigray war saw their alliance collapse when the government made peace with the TPLF. When Prime Minister Abiy sought to rein in Amhara militias, relations deteriorated rapidly. Fighting between Fano self-defense forces and the federal army continued into 2026, with battles reported in more than 31 districts in 11 zones of Amhara.

According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), from January 1, 2022, to May 15, 2026, more than 7,400 attacks were recorded nationwide. Amhara was the most volatile region, with over half (3,719 attacks). In Oromia, the most populous region, there were 2,735 attacks due to the OLA insurgency and separate communal clashes. Other regions also experienced instability: Tigray saw 262 attacks, and western Gambela had 144.