Strait of Hormuz Reopens but Traffic Remains Slow as Ships Stay Cautious

U.S. President Donald Trump enthusiastically announced a preliminary agreement with Iran to end what he called the worst energy crisis of modern times—and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on June 15. Yet three days after the deal was announced by both sides, maritime traffic through this narrow but vital waterway remained subdued.

Data from maritime monitor MarineTraffic shows that since the preliminary deal was announced on Sunday, only seven vessels have crossed the strait—including some Iranian oil tankers that had broken through the U.S. blockade. TankerTrackers, a monitoring firm, called this “Iran’s first crude oil export in two months.” Meanwhile, more than 550 ships remain stuck on either side of the strait, waiting for a chance to transit into the Gulf.

Haider Anjum, senior analyst at Jyske Bank in Denmark, said: “Shipowners need to see real physical security and stability over a longer period. There must be a prolonged period with no incidents before shipowners and insurers consider the risk sufficiently reduced.” He estimated this process could take about four months.

Sea Mines

The threat from naval mines is a major barrier. Even without official confirmation, the risk of mines is enough to halt traffic because no insurer will cover that peril. Anjum noted that establishing a safe, mine-free corridor is expected to take about two months. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier stated that Iran “had laid mines across large areas of Hormuz—international waters,” but details have not been released.

Coordination Fees

Historically, passage through the Strait of Hormuz was free. However, after the war, Tehran said it would charge a “safe transit coordination” fee, establishing the Persian Gulf Strait Management Authority in May. International law does not permit fees for natural straits, but “service” fees may be charged. The U.S. and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states oppose this. Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi said the U.S. could sanction ships paying fees to Iran, but the higher priority is keeping the strait open.

Marine Insurance

Insurers had either withdrawn war-risk coverage or raised premiums to prohibitive levels after the conflict erupted. Before the war, such premiums were about 0.25% of hull value per transit but soared to 5% during hostilities. Currently, premiums have dropped to 1–3% of vessel value. Anjum said: “Even without physical attacks, a lack of insurance can paralyze maritime flow.”

Arsenio Dominguez, head of the UN maritime agency, welcomed the agreement to reopen the waterway, calling it “an important step toward restoring safety to this vital maritime corridor.” However, he cautioned: “Implementation will take time to ensure all necessary safety and security measures are in place.”

Meanwhile, observers say many ships will eventually cross the strait because both sides have incentives to reopen the route. But as Anjum put it, the risk at Hormuz has shifted from a complete closure “into a complex, multi-layered security environment: mines below, missiles above, and insurance constraints in between.”