Champions League Race: Which Premier League Teams Still Have a Chance?
Al Jazeera Staff
After Manchester United's 3-2 win over Liverpool, the race for Champions League spots heats up. With Arsenal, Man City, and Man United already through, teams like Liverpool, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea, and even Everton still have mathematical chances to grab one of the remaining berths.
Following Manchester United's 3-2 victory over Liverpool, which secured their return to the Champions League after a two-year absence, and with Arsenal and Manchester City already qualified, the Premier League still has at least two berths for Europe's premier competition up for grabs.
Teams finishing in the top five this season automatically qualify for the Champions League. Additionally, there is a scenario where the sixth-placed team could also participate next season.
Under the rules, the Premier League is allocated a fifth spot called the European Performance Spot (EPS), reserved for the two leagues with the best collective performance in the three European cups the previous season. If Aston Villa wins the Europa League (which normally guarantees a Champions League spot) and finishes fifth, then the sixth-placed team would receive the EPS berth. Conversely, if Villa finishes fourth and wins the Europa League, the EPS is not passed down; the fifth-placed team takes the final spot, and sixth goes to the Europa League.
Currently, Villa trails Nottingham Forest 1-0 in the first leg of the Europa League semi-final. The return leg takes place at Villa Park on Thursday. If Forest (currently 16th) wins the Europa League, they would become the sixth English side to qualify for the Champions League.
Liverpool's Path
The defeat to Man United dropped Liverpool to fourth on 58 points from 35 matches, with three games remaining, six points clear of sixth-placed Bournemouth. Liverpool needs just one point if Bournemouth loses or draws its next game, but four points if Bournemouth wins.
Liverpool's remaining fixtures (against top sides):
- 9 May: Liverpool vs Chelsea
- 17 May: Aston Villa vs Liverpool
- 24 May: Liverpool vs Brentford
Aston Villa's Path
Villa lost 2-1 to Tottenham at home, also on 58 points after 35 matches, trailing Liverpool on goal difference. They also need just one point if Bournemouth drops points, or four if Bournemouth wins.
Remaining fixtures:
- 10 May: Burnley vs Aston Villa
- 17 May: Aston Villa vs Liverpool
- 24 May: Man City vs Aston Villa
Bournemouth's Path
Bournemouth beat Crystal Palace 3-0 to reach 52 points after 35 matches, six points behind the top five. They need to win at least two of their last three games and hope Liverpool or Villa drop significant points. Sixth place is not assured, with Brentford and Brighton in pursuit.
Remaining fixtures:
- 9 May: Fulham vs Bournemouth
- 19 May: Bournemouth vs Man City
- 24 May: Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth
Brentford's Path
Seventh-placed Brentford has 51 points, seven behind the top five. A top-five finish is very difficult, but sixth place is entirely possible.
Remaining fixtures:
- 9 May: Man City vs Brentford
- 17 May: Brentford vs Crystal Palace
- 24 May: Liverpool vs Brentford
Brighton's Path
Eighth-placed Brighton has 50 points. They can only reach the top five if they win all three remaining games while Liverpool or Villa take no more than one point. If they take just one point, they would need a superior goal difference.
Remaining fixtures:
- 9 May: Brighton vs Wolves
- 17 May: Leeds vs Brighton
- 24 May: Brighton vs Man United
Chelsea's Path
Ninth-placed Chelsea has 48 points with four matches left. They can max out at 60 points, but a six-match losing streak makes that unlikely.
Remaining fixtures:
- 4 May: Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
- 9 May: Liverpool vs Chelsea
- 19 May: Chelsea vs Tottenham
- 24 May: Sunderland vs Chelsea
Everton's Path
11th-placed Everton has 47 points with four matches remaining. They could climb to fourth if they win all remaining games and hope Liverpool and Villa draw their matches, lose others, and have a favorable goal difference.
Other teams like Fulham (10th, 48 points), Sunderland (12th, 47 points), Newcastle (13th, 45 points), Leeds (14th, 43 points), and Crystal Palace (15th, 43 points) could also contend for sixth place given favorable results.