Migration increasingly dangerous despite global commitment progress

Governments are gathering in New York for the second International Migration Review Forum (IMRF) to assess progress on global migration commitments, with a central question: Has the Global Compact for Migration improved conditions for migrants?

The answer is yes, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Adopted in 2018, the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration is the first international agreement aimed at making migration safer and more humane through cooperation. However, the picture in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is mixed: some routes have shifted, but the risks migrants face remain serious and, in some cases, have worsened.

In the Mediterranean, arrival numbers can be misleading. In 2025, just over 66,500 people reached Italy and Malta via the Central Mediterranean Route, nearly unchanged from the previous year. Arrivals in Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria via the Eastern Mediterranean Route fell by about 30%, while the Western Route saw a slight increase. The West African Atlantic Route to the Canary Islands recorded a 62% drop.

But lower arrivals do not mean safer journeys. On the Eastern Mediterranean Route, deaths and disappearances nearly doubled in just one year. On the Atlantic Route, fatalities barely fell despite the sharp drop in arrivals, meaning the probability of dying at sea increased. On the Central Route, more than 1,300 people are known to have died in 2025, keeping it one of the deadliest migration corridors in the world.

These trends reflect a broader reality: when border controls tighten or routes shift, journeys often become longer, more fragmented and more dangerous. People continue to move, but with fewer options, many are pushed into irregular and high-risk pathways.

Sudan illustrates how crisis can reshape migration across a region. Three years after conflict erupted in April 2023, Sudan has become the world’s largest migration crisis. The number of internally displaced people has more than tripled, to over 11.5 million. Nearly 4 million people have returned home—often to damaged or partially destroyed houses—but nearly 9 million remain displaced. Unsurprisingly, more Sudanese are appearing on the Eastern and Central Mediterranean routes.

The MENA region is also deeply linked to global migration patterns. Migration from Asia-Pacific to Europe rose significantly in 2025, with nearly a third of irregular arrivals coming from that region. A visa policy change in one country, a conflict in another, or a new enforcement measure on one corridor can reshape risks thousands of kilometers away.

Meanwhile, the underlying pressures driving migration in the MENA region have not eased. The region has one of the world’s youngest populations, with youth unemployment often exceeding 20%. Climate-related shocks—droughts, floods, heatwaves—are increasingly intersecting with conflict and economic strain.

Key policy priorities stand out: First, search and rescue capacity must adapt to changing realities. Second, legal and safe pathways must be expanded. Third, better and shared data is crucial. Finally, international cooperation needs to be strengthened.

At this IMRF, 130 countries are discussing how to advance the Global Compact’s implementation, including expanding legal pathways, strengthening worker protections, investing in data systems and lifesaving protection, and cooperating across borders to dismantle criminal networks.