Canada's ruling Liberal Party has won all three by-elections held Monday, according to projections from the Canadian Press. Analysts view the results as an endorsement of Prime Minister Mark Carney following his confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The victories came in the ridings of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (Quebec), Beaches-East York (Toronto), and North Vancouver-Capilano (British Columbia). Notably, the result in Quebec is considered the most significant shift, as Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil is projected to win a decisive victory in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, a riding held by the opposition Conservatives since 2018. The area has many aluminum plants, dairy farms, and industries affected by the escalating trade war.
“This win means we can maintain Canada's unity across the country,” Gobeil said. The other two seats were previously held by the Liberals. In North Vancouver-Capilano, Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to PM Carney, emerged victorious.
Speaking on CBC Television, Liberal MP Hedy Fry emphasized: “America is receiving a message tonight. Our leader has the support of Canadians.”
The outcome comes amid strained U.S.-Canada relations after bilateral trade negotiations collapsed on August 21. The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion in Canadian goods, and Canada retaliated with plans to levy tariffs on American products.
President Trump has escalated attacks on Canada, including signing an executive order to rename Lake Ontario to “Lake America” and repeatedly referring to making Canada the 51st U.S. state. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that Canada has little leverage in the dispute because the U.S. economy is about 13 times larger.
For Canada's part, PM Carney is accelerating efforts to strengthen economic ties with Europe and other partners. He declared the vote results an endorsement of his government's approach: “At this important time for Canada, voters have placed their trust in our government's plan.”
With these wins, the Liberals increase their seat count to 173 in the 343-seat House of Commons, further consolidating their position in parliament. McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland said the results show Carney still enjoys broad support, but the victory in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is the most significant, reflecting Quebec support for the decision to “walk away from trade talks with the White House.”
Professor Béland also noted that the Conservative defeat there is bad news for leader Pierre Poilievre. The party had captured about 41% of the vote in last year's federal election but fell to about 13%, placing third in Monday's vote. “These numbers look really bad,” he said. The by-elections were triggered after the MPs who held the three seats resigned earlier this year.
