Separatists Win Quebec Election, but Independence Remains Distant

The victory of the Parti Québécois (PQ) in Monday's Quebec election may make the party's signature goal—secession of the French-speaking province from Canada—look closer at hand, but Canadian unity may not be as seriously threatened as it first appears.

The PQ's win was both impressive and disappointing. The party gained 56 seats and more than doubled its share of the popular vote compared with the 2022 election, taking power for the first time in 14 years. Yet it fell five seats short of a majority, making its promise to hold a referendum after Donald Trump leaves office in 2028 all but impossible to fulfill.

According to polling analyst Philippe Fournier, the party also won only about 28 percent of the popular vote—the lowest share for a government in Canadian electoral history.

The vast majority of Quebecers voted for parties that do not want a referendum. That reflects the province's wariness over the past 30 years toward another bitter debate over Quebec's place in Canada, especially as Trump imposes tariffs and threatens the country.

The result calls into question not only another referendum but also many of the PQ's other initiatives, including abolishing the monarchy and applying Quebec's strict language law to colleges in the province. The new government will also face strong opposition to its plan to cut immigration—a move that has already angered farmers and the business community.

Meanwhile, the most popular politician in the province remains Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, largely because of his firmness toward Trump. That puts PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in an awkward position for a separatist: he cannot be seen as a threat to Canadian unity.

In his victory speech, he came close to acknowledging this, pledging to be a "good-faith collaborator" with the rest of the country and even speaking English before the crowd. He later sought to court the opposition side by declaring Tuesday that he would prevent the Lieutenant-Governor—the representative of the British Crown—from swearing in his new government.

"Seventy percent of Quebecers don't want a referendum," said John Parisella, a former chief of staff to two Quebec premiers and the province's one-time representative in New York and Washington. "And every time they see Trump's face on the screen at night, it doesn't increase the desire for separation. For many Quebecers, the link with Canada is extremely important, even if not necessarily emotional."

In reality, the vote may have had less to do with support for secession than with punishing the incumbent government. The election saw the total collapse of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which had held power since 2018.

A coalition of federalists and separatists—the party describes itself as nationalist—the CAQ won no seats and retained only a third of its 2022 vote share. Party leader Christine Fréchette lost in her own riding to the PQ, and by Tuesday afternoon she had announced her resignation.

In a province whose political discourse revolves around the federalist-separatist divide, the election also showed a partial return to normalcy: separatists went back to the PQ, while the federalist vote was split between the opposition Liberals and the upstart Quebec Conservative Party (PCQ).

The PCQ benefited from support that had gone to the CAQ, winning 19 seats in the interior and the Quebec City area, where leader Éric Duhaime won election for the first time. Founded in 2009, the populist party had two candidates elected, including a well-known anti-vaccine figure and a controversial anti-"woke" radio host.

The party broke through in part on a pledge to build an underground highway linking Quebec City with suburbs across the St. Lawrence River, even though a government report showed the project could cost up to C$9.3 billion and would not significantly reduce congestion.

Montreal, meanwhile, swung decisively to the Liberals, as leader Charles Milliard recaptured seats on the island and in the Eastern Townships—traditional strongholds of English speakers. The Liberals, firmly federalist and unaffiliated with Carney's federal Liberals, will be the official opposition in Quebec.

Governing with only a handful of seats in the province's largest city will be a major challenge for the PQ; as history shows, winning a referendum without Montreal is nearly impossible.

Canada faces another potential threat to its sovereignty in less than two weeks, when Alberta in the west holds a "referendum on a referendum" over secession. Fortunately for Carney and unfortunately for Trump, polls show Albertans are just as wary of separation as Quebecers in the east—regardless of which party they have just chosen to govern them.