Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Quebecois (PQ), said on July 21 that his party will not hold an independence referendum until U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House.
Speaking to reporters, St-Pierre Plamondon stressed that the debate on this issue can only proceed calmly once Trump is no longer president. "It must not be dominated by the turbulence of U.S. politics, or the impulsive rhetoric of an unpredictable president, or campaigns that sow fear," he said.
According to Plamondon, the unpredictability of the U.S. administration is harming both the campaign process and the quality of the debate about Quebec's future as a nation.
Quebec must hold a provincial election before October 5, and the PQ is aiming to gain more seats in that vote. Recent polls show the party leading the Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), which currently holds the most seats in the Quebec legislature.
St-Pierre Plamondon reaffirmed his intention to hold an independence referendum if his party wins this year. However, he said the vote would be postponed until later in the four-year term, meaning after Trump's second term ends in January 2029.
Since returning to the White House in 2025, Trump's statements and policies toward Canada have reshaped bilateral relations. Trump has repeatedly sparked controversy by suggesting Canada become the 51st U.S. state, while using tariffs on Canadian goods as leverage to press for policy demands.
On July 21, Canadian officials were continuing negotiations to stave off Trump's latest tariff threat, with the U.S. set to impose a 50% import duty on a range of goods starting at midnight the following day.
Rising U.S.-Canada tensions have put separatist movements in regions like Alberta and Quebec in a difficult spot. Trump's actions have fueled a wave of Canadian nationalism, with citizens expressing anger at U.S. policy. Some speculate that Washington could encourage separatist efforts in Alberta, where conservative-leaning figures such as Premier Danielle Smith hold significant influence.
While Quebecers have long pushed for greater sovereignty, experts say the economic benefits of remaining within Canada may become more attractive amid U.S. instability.
"Holding a referendum while Trump is in the White House would be very risky," Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, told the Associated Press. "Support for independence in Quebec remains around 30%, and the PQ leading in the polls is not a sign that support for independence is rising," he added.
