Former President Kabila Joins Rebel Alliance, Raising Fears for Peace in DR Congo

Goma, DR Congo – Hopes for peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) have taken another blow as former President Joseph Kabila joins a new political-military coalition aimed at challenging incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi.

The coalition, called the National Reinstatement Front (FRN) and led by Kabila, was announced in Goma on Monday evening, replacing the existing alliance between the Congo River Alliance (AFC) and the March 23 Movement (M23). The new alliance brings together figures and forces linked to both movements, accusing Tshisekedi of dictatorship and calling for resistance by any means, including force.

Goma, the main city of North Kivu province in eastern Congo, has been under M23-AFC control since January last year. Kabila's move places a former head of state directly at the helm of the insurgency.

The conflict has displaced millions of people and drawn in neighboring countries. Its roots stretch back decades, shaped by regional rivalries, unresolved security concerns and competition for territory and mineral resources. The aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide helped ignite wars across the region, while tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali continue to shape the fighting.

The M23 says it took up arms because the Congolese government failed to honor earlier commitments. The Congolese government and international parties accuse Rwanda of backing the group, an allegation Kigali denies, citing security threats from armed groups operating in eastern Congo.

Whether Kabila's leadership will reshape the insurgency or further complicate efforts to end the war remains unclear. In Goma, residents fear the latest realignment will push peace further out of reach.

Why do people fear the war is not over?

For Basa Juhudi, Kabila's decision revives the fear that the conflict will drag on.

"As a resident of Goma, I once believed the war could end in the very near future, that the Congolese government would liberate us. And we were utterly shocked to see that even our former president has joined the war," he told Al Jazeera.

Juhudi said Kabila's political experience makes his involvement especially worrying.

"Joseph Kabila joining the rebel forces, when he is a former president and knows this country well, means the war is far from over. I am not happy about this frightening situation."

He also voiced concern about the country's democratic future, recalling the peaceful transfer of power in 2019 when Tshisekedi succeeded Kabila.

"Today, I am very afraid. I don't know whether I will be lucky enough to witness a true democracy in DR Congo. I was once overjoyed by the country's first peaceful transfer of power," Juhudi said.

How does Kabila's past shape his comeback?

Kabila came to power in 2001 after his father, Laurent-Desire Kabila, was assassinated. He was elected president in 2006 and re-elected in 2011.

His second constitutional term was due to end in 2016, but elections were postponed. Critics accused him of trying to hold onto power beyond the two terms allowed by the constitution. Protests against the election delay were bloodily repressed before a political compromise paved the way for elections in December 2018.

Tshisekedi was declared the winner and took office in January 2019, marking DR Congo's first peaceful transfer of presidential power through elections. Kabila justified the election delay by saying Congolese people had finally resolved their problems through dialogue.

His joining of the FRN marks a new phase in his confrontation with Tshisekedi. The coalition presents itself as a political alternative to the government while maintaining an armed challenge to the authorities. Whether Kabila can turn his political experience and networks into broader support remains an open question.

Can dialogue still prevent wider confrontation?

Kabila's move drew criticism from Congolese political circles.

Vital Kamerhe, a former speaker of parliament and leader of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC), called on the movement to abandon armed struggle.

"You cannot erase your own past by accusing your successor," Kamerhe said in a speech on Wednesday.

"I call on the leaders of this movement to abandon the plan and prioritize the path of dialogue. Whatever the frustration, disagreement or ambition, nothing, absolutely nothing can justify taking up arms against your own country, at the risk of sacrificing Congolese lives," he said.

His appeal highlights the central challenge for peace efforts: political grievances remain unresolved, while renewed fighting threatens a population already worn down by conflict.

What does Kabila's move mean for peace initiatives?

The United States and Qatar have pursued separate diplomatic initiatives to end the conflict.

In Doha, representatives of the Congolese government and the AFC-M23 discussed a ceasefire, the repatriation of refugees, the release of detainees and measures against hate speech targeting ethnic minorities.

Washington is pursuing an agreement between DR Congo and Rwanda, including commitments to neutralize the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and withdraw Rwandan troops from Congolese territory.

These initiatives address different but interconnected aspects of the crisis. Kabila's emergence as FRN leader raises the question of who will represent the armed opposition and whether existing commitments will be honored.

The new coalition, however, says it intends to honor the commitments made in the Doha talks.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, Freddy Kaniki, one of the FRN leaders, said the signing of the coalition's founding document and its official launch marked the dissolution of the Congo River Alliance (AFC), which the FRN succeeds by default.

The statement said the FRN will take over "the rights, obligations and commitments of the AFC, especially those made within the framework of the Doha negotiations."

The declaration suggests the coalition intends to maintain the commitments of its predecessor. How that pledge will translate into progress toward a ceasefire and a lasting solution, however, remains to be seen.

For Josue Akuzwe Walayi, a Congolese human rights activist, the development risks eroding the hope the talks have generated.

"My biggest fear is the future of the Doha and Washington peace initiatives; not only that they will fail diplomatically, but that they will become agreements that do not bring real peace to Congolese people," he told Al Jazeera.

Walayi argued that agreements lacking effective accountability mechanisms risk becoming empty promises. He said lasting peace requires parties to honor their commitments and violations to be recorded, investigated and punished under the law.

"What value will the Doha and Washington agreements have if, despite the negotiations, Congolese people keep dying, families are still forced into exile and communities still live in fear? The danger is normalizing war while the people pay the price," he warned.

Could Kabila's return challenge Kinshasa more broadly?

Kabila's return to the center of the conflict comes as he faces the Congolese state in court. Last year, a Congolese military court sentenced him to death in absentia on charges including treason and war crimes linked to the M23 insurgency. His relatives described the ruling as "unjust" and "politically motivated."

Goma resident Willo Riziki said Kabila's involvement should prompt the government to reassess the challenge it faces.

"The Congolese authorities must now take this war very seriously. If Kinshasa thinks it is dealing with puppets, that is no longer the case. There are people across the country who remain loyal to Kabila," Riziki told Al Jazeera.

How far that loyalty extends, and whether it can translate into organized political or military support, remains unclear.

There has been no official government reaction to the announcement of the coalition. Last week, after Kabila warned the country was in danger and needed saving, government spokesman Patrick Muyaya said the former president "has nothing to offer but chaos." In a post on X, Muyaya described Kabila as "a man of the past, nostalgic for anti-democratic methods."

The confrontation between Kabila and Tshisekedi reflects a broader struggle over the country's political future. But for people in the east, the immediate question is whether the latest realignment will bring more fighting and further delay a negotiated solution.

"We don't know whether the war will end here," Juhudi said.