Netanyahu emerges as possible loser in war with Iran

The front page of Haaretz on Tuesday captured what many Israelis feel: “The Iran debacle is Netanyahu’s biggest failure since October 7.” After three and a half months of war with Iran, Israel’s closest ally, the United States, mediated a temporary ceasefire – and did so, it seemed, without meaningful Israeli input.

The Iranian state, long portrayed by Israeli politicians as an existential threat, remains intact and may even emerge more powerful through its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Closer to home, Israel’s ability to continue its military campaign in Lebanon – aimed at stopping rocket fire from the Iran-backed Hezbollah – must now be weighed against the risk of rupturing the US-Iran deal before it is formally signed later this week.

Opposition to the deal in Israel cuts across the political spectrum, from centrist rivals to far-right coalition partners. Gadi Eisenkot, a centrist widely seen as a leading candidate to replace Netanyahu in elections expected this year, excoriated the agreement as “the bleak outcome of a failing government, whose gap between empty promises of total victory and actual content of the US-Iran deal is enormous.”

Within Netanyahu’s own coalition, far-right figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich joined the chorus. “We must not act according to the agreement between Trump and Khamenei,” Ben-Gvir said. Smotrich called it “a bad deal.”

Netanyahu, who pushed for war with Iran for years, knows how unpopular an inconclusive end to the conflict would be. He has tried to distance himself from the deal, describing it as “Trump’s decision” to end the war, while insisting he was an equal partner with the US in waging it. “We removed this danger for years to come. We saved the state of Israel from destruction,” he said at a press conference Monday. But analysts say the claim rings hollow, much like his declarations after the 12-day war with Iran in June 2025.

“The assumption that dragging the US into the war would crush Iran and achieve what Israel could not do alone has failed,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, speaking to Al Jazeera. “That worldview was soaked in colonialist arrogance. The idea that Iran could be smarter, more strategic, and gain the upper hand was simply not on the agenda.”

The debate in Israel now centers on Iran’s post-war status as a regional power and potential nuclear threshold state. President Donald Trump has insisted Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon, but it remains unclear how Washington intends to persuade Iran to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium, especially after a war many Iranians believe they won, and amid the economic fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ahron Bregman, a senior lecturer at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, described the outcome as “a strategic disaster for Israel. Netanyahu launched the war with Iran to topple the regime, but the regime is still standing, more extreme than before. Iran will rebuild its missile arsenal.”

How long Israel can count on US support for a continued ground invasion in Lebanon is unclear. Iran has long demanded that Israel halt its operations in Lebanon as a condition for any deal. Netanyahu has insisted that the US-Iran agreement does not restrict Israel’s freedom of action there, setting up a barrier to a ceasefire and creating friction with Washington. On Tuesday, Trump underscored the difference, saying he was “not happy” with Israel’s conduct in Lebanon and that Netanyahu needed to be “more responsible.”

“Lebanon will be a flashpoint for further attacks between Israel and Iran,” Bregman predicted. “Will the US join Israel in fighting Iran again? I doubt any American president with any sense would try a war with Iran. Geography is on Iran’s side, and the Strait of Hormuz is an economic nuclear bomb the Iranians will use without hesitation.”

Netanyahu remains Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, and few would count him out before the elections later this year. But the historical judgment on his recent regional adventures is already taking shape. “He goes into the election with the October 7 disaster, failure in Lebanon, and a catastrophic war with Iran,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador to New York, told Al Jazeera. “In the end, Netanyahu is seen as the man who squandered the opportunity of a lifetime. He had everything going for him: an American president, Iran isolated and without allies, military and technological superiority – and he blew it. For 30 years, he talked about this, and when it came time to deliver, he failed. He changed the Middle Eastern political landscape – but in Iran’s favor.”