US-Iran Conflict and Hormuz Standoff Could Drag On for Months

The war between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered a critical phase, with the conflict's future leaving international markets and regional stability facing significant uncertainty. A memorandum signed on June 17 between Iran and the US temporarily halted the war that began on February 28, but this ceasefire has since collapsed.

At the heart of the prolonged crisis is the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint. Iran has nearly blockaded this waterway as fighting flared up again, disrupting global oil and liquefied natural gas exports and sending energy prices soaring.

As indirect diplomatic channels—particularly through Omani mediation—seek to establish a 60-day temporary shipping corridor, fundamental disagreements over sovereignty and regional security threaten to prolong the current standoff for months.

Iron Wall and Decapitation Campaign

On the ground, the US maintains an aggressive posture. US Central Command (CENTCOM) recently announced it had diverted 48 commercial vessels, searched 2 ships, and disabled 2 others as part of a strict naval blockade against Iran.

US President Donald Trump described the move as an unwavering "iron wall," demanding that Tehran either surrender completely or reach a comprehensive deal before any easing of pressure. Trump warned Tehran that current negotiations are the "last chance before decapitation." However, the US Treasury simultaneously lifted sanctions on 3 airlines linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), sending mixed signals about Washington's intentions.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said Iran is carefully weighing Washington's weaknesses, including depleted missile stockpiles and the political cost of war ahead of the November midterm elections in the US.

"Trump's warning is therefore more likely to be seen by Tehran as psychological pressure to force concessions, rather than an imminent decapitation strike threat, although the risk of military escalation cannot be ruled out," Mortazavi said.

She analyzed: "Tehran sees a familiar pattern in Trump's approach. If Iran backs down, he could increase pressure and demand more concessions. But if Iran holds its ground and shows willingness to escalate, Tehran may calculate that Trump will ultimately retreat because of real constraints."

Mortazavi noted that the Omani-brokered pause helps alleviate immediate pressure on Iran and allows Tehran to test Washington's intentions without abandoning its position in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Omani Channel

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei denied direct negotiations with the US but confirmed that dialogues with Oman have taken place over the past two months to establish a temporary safe shipping route using both Iranian and Omani territorial waters. Iranian Trade Minister Seyed Mohammad Atabak also traveled to Pakistan to explore alternative container shipping routes to bypass the US blockade.

Mohammad Sadeghian, director of the Iran-Arab Studies Center, said the world faces a very complex situation: "On one hand, the optimistic view holds that the obstacle at the Strait of Hormuz is on its way to resolution, moving toward a memorandum. On the other hand, the pessimistic view points to many barriers, including the possibility that President Trump could reverse course once again and we return to war."

Sovereignty and Control Role

The US emphasizes that the future cannot leave Iran controlling commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas passed before the war.

Joey Hood, a former US assistant secretary of state, said: "Iran has always said it wants to control the Strait of Hormuz, and the purpose of all this is to ward off future threats from the US. Without freedom of navigation in the strait and the movement of ships, this vital corridor used by the whole world would be closed. The US and the international community will never accept such behavior from Iran."

Faisal Abu Sulaib, a political science professor at Kuwait University, argued that the prospect of Iran maintaining control of the strait is a major concern for the US: "If the agreement gives Iran a gatekeeper role with control over traffic, it would complicate the success of this agreement, because the US and Gulf states will not accept this new post-war equation."

Mahjoob Zweiri, a Middle East political expert, stressed a strategic shift in Tehran's negotiating behavior: "Iran has changed its strategy regarding the strait; it is no longer just an issue to be negotiated, but a lever against which everything else—sanctions relief and the lifting of the naval blockade—is negotiated."

Regional Matrix

The prolonged conflict is also influenced by the role of non-state actors, particularly Iran-aligned groups and strategic positions such as the Red Sea, controlled by the Houthi forces.

Ibrahim Fraihat, a professor of international conflict at the Doha Institute for Advanced Studies, said: "Non-state forces have their own internal motivations and domestic factors. The relationship between the sponsor state and non-state forces is a reciprocal one, not a simple button-pressing type."