UK by-election in Makerfield: Voters to choose potential Starmer successor
Theo Simon Speakman Cordall (Al Jazeera)
On June 18, voters in Ashton-in-Makerfield will decide the political future of Andy Burnham, a potential replacement for struggling Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The by-election is seen as a contest between Labour and the right-wing insurgent Reform UK party. Local voters express frustration with the establishment and are torn between anti-incumbent sentiment and Burnham's regional appeal.
Ashton-in-Makerfield, United Kingdom – In a scenario few could have predicted, voters in a northern English market town near Manchester may decide the future of UK political leadership.
The sudden resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons in late February left the seat for Ashton-in-Makerfield, long considered a Labour stronghold, vacant. This opened the door for Manchester's popular mayor, Andy Burnham, to run.
If he wins the by-election on June 18, Burnham could move to oust incumbent Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who faces numerous challenges.
On his path to the UK Parliament, Burnham must overcome local voters uncertain of his abilities, as well as the right-wing Reform UK party. Reform has pledged to "throw everything" at blocking Burnham's path.
Local resident Peter Thompson told Al Jazeera the election is highly consequential. He called Makerfield voters the ultimate power behind choosing a national leader, or as Burnham's popular nickname "King of the North" suggests, they are the "kingmakers".
The constituency defies easy classification. According to political science professor Rob Ford, it is neither a typical declining northern industrial town nor as buoyant as central Manchester. Instead, it is "a middle place", an "archipelago of distinct and often poorly connected towns", bearing features of Manchester, nearby Wigan, and blending traits of Merseyside and Lancashire.
Politically, Makerfield has been a safe Labour seat since its creation in 1983. However, in local elections in May, Starmer's party lost all eight local council seats to Reform UK. Few observers dare to predict this race.
Despite political scientists being perplexed, Tracy Walker, 61, a charity shop worker, is decisive: "I want Andy Burnham. I think we should give him a chance. He's a northerner." She contrasted Burnham with previous prime ministers from the south. "I think they should give him a chance," she added, referring to the Labour National Executive Committee blocking the Manchester mayor from contesting another by-election in February.
Burnham is praised for his role as Manchester mayor, winning three consecutive terms. His popularity contrasts with Labour's image. Starmer's 2024 general election "change" promises have not reached places like Makerfield, where household incomes are below average.
"I'm 78, I've been voting all my life. Only two parties have run this country: Labour and Conservative," Peter Thompson said from behind the counter of his record store. He plans to vote Reform. "Look at the state of the country. It needs a change." He criticises the complacency of "those in power". "All my friends my age feel the same. We want change. It's not desperation for Reform, it's against the establishment. The establishment exists for its own benefit. Even if Reform wins, it won't change much, but it might shock those who have been shut out of power."
Frustration like Peter's stems from the impact of the Conservatives' austerity programme in the 2010s, according to Malcolm, a local activist distributing anti-Reform leaflets in the town centre. "Austerity destroyed Ashton, inequality worsened. People are struggling. They're angry and blame immigrants. Reform skilfully blames immigrants. It's easy to point to."
Polls show neither Burnham nor Reform candidate Robert Kenyon have a clear lead. Reform appears undeterred by the weakened Conservative Party after 14 years in power, but the newly formed far-right Restore party could split Reform's vote, especially after receiving support from tech billionaire Elon Musk. "Restore takes about 7% of the vote in Ashton, but that's 7% Reform really needs," said John Curtice, Britain's leading polling expert.
He explained that when aggregating all progressive, left-leaning party votes in the area against the broader right-wing parties, the two camps are almost evenly matched. The only exception is Burnham. "Burnham is very popular among 2024 voters [those who gave Labour a landslide two years ago]," He said. "If you survey that group with and without Burnham's name, the difference is about 9%, which could be enough to win Ashton."
For Edna Conliff, 84, the maxim "local politics is still everything" holds true. "He's local, very local," she said while waiting for a bus home, pointing towards Burnham's house on the outskirts of the constituency. "He did a lot for Manchester when he was there." In the upcoming election, Edna believes her town is effectively electing the next UK prime minister. "Having a prime minister from Makerfield would mean a lot. Might help us. Who knows?"
