Will Israel's Upcoming Election End Netanyahu's Political Career?

Israel's upcoming general election is expected to determine the legacy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces intense pressure over his handling of regional wars and corruption allegations.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is considered the ultimate survivor in the country's politics. However, with the election set for October, he faces his greatest challenge yet, one that could end his nearly four-decade political career in bitterness.

The backdrop is a flurry of political events, after Netanyahu allegedly convinced US President Donald Trump to join the war against Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to launch attacks on Israel, Gulf states, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel is also embroiled in another war with Hezbollah in Lebanon to the north. This leaves Netanyahu caught between US pressure to halt military strikes in Lebanon and an Israeli public that wants to continue fighting Iran and its proxies in the region.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu faces widespread public anger over his failure to establish an independent inquiry into the government's failures before and after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

Following the genocidal war in Gaza, Israel has faced growing international condemnation for its actions, becoming a pariah state in the eyes of some countries and drawing more criticism within US political circles.

Netanyahu is also still facing multiple corruption charges dating back to 2019, and if convicted, he could face prison time.

"It seems Netanyahu is in real trouble," political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera. "The US-Iran deal is not going down well, and the public is unclear what is happening in Lebanon. No one knows if it's a ceasefire, withdrawal, or something else, and the press here is very suspicious. Finally, there is the US issue. Israelis have long thought they could act independently, but recent events show that is a fantasy."

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Israelis are keenly aware of the importance of US backing for their security. Currently, Israel and the US appear to have very different views on the future of the war in Lebanon, with Trump wanting to de-escalate fighting so that peace with Iran can be maintained and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal.

Iran has ensured Lebanon is part of the agreement ending the war with the US, so any fresh Israeli strikes into southern Lebanon threaten the stability of the Tehran-Washington memorandum.

Netanyahu is being blamed by both hawks and doves in Israel for the military campaign in Lebanon, with hardliners urging him to continue the war and defeat Hezbollah—a difficult task given the group's resistance and US pressure. Others are aware that defying Trump's will will place further strain on US-Israel ties.

Israel still illegally occupies about one-fifth of Lebanese territory, and a framework deal signed with Beirut in Washington last Friday leaves its future military presence uncertain. A recent poll showed nearly three-quarters of Israelis support a continued occupation of Lebanon, while just over a tenth oppose it.

Gadi Eisenkot, former Israeli army chief of staff and a main political rival to Netanyahu, blames the current US-Israel rift on Netanyahu's inability to clearly present Israel's strategy to Washington on Lebanon.

"We failed to capitalize on military achievements and woke up to an unacceptable security reality," Eisenkot said. "The very fact that Israel needs Washington's approval to carry out a strike in Lebanon is unthinkable."

"Much of the opposition is outflanking him from the right with claims they have magical military or diplomatic solutions to what is happening in Lebanon," said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser. "Meanwhile, Netanyahu will buy time and actively sabotage the US-Iran deal."

US Relations

Under the terms of the memorandum signed by Iran and the US on June 18, both parties and their allies pledge an "immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon." Crucially for Netanyahu, it states that both countries guarantee "the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon."

Despite this, Israel has publicly refused to commit to withdrawing from Lebanese territory and continues to strike, with about 4,230 people killed and 12,179 others wounded in the latest conflict since March 2. Meanwhile, northern Israeli towns remain within range of Hezbollah rockets and drones, and the Lebanese armed group remains undefeated.

"Netanyahu promised the people of northern Israel a future he cannot deliver," political analyst Ori Goldberg said. "He promised them a morning where they wake up and look out the window and never see an Arab, but I'm not sure people actually believe that. Everyone is tired and craves normal life. So there may be a chance for Netanyahu to wriggle out of Lebanon and survive."

This window for Israel may be short-lived. According to media reports, Trump is growing weary of Netanyahu's actions in Lebanon and elsewhere, calling the Israeli prime minister "crazy" in a phone call.

On June 7, Trump told the Financial Times that Netanyahu must abide by Washington's ceasefire deal with Iran, stressing: "I decide everything. He doesn't."

Levy, the former Israeli government adviser, noted that Trump and Netanyahu have had seven in-person meetings in the first 13 months of the US president's term, but none since they jointly launched the war on Iran on February 28, 2026.

"That will worry Netanyahu. Right now, he is probably angling for another meeting... He has to think of a way to win back the US president and do so before the election," Levy told Al Jazeera. "Ultimately, Netanyahu is watching the minute hand and dodging the hour hand; time is very tight."