Cuba declares readiness for total self-defense amid US threats

In over 30 years of regular trips to Cuba, Helen Yaffe, a researcher and podcast host, recalls the time a Category 4 hurricane hit the island. Living in a house with 13 others, there was no panic when the storm arrived—everyone knew their role.

Some took elderly neighbors to shelters. Others prepared to clear debris after the winds subsided. Cuba's national defense system against meteorological disasters has been praised by the United Nations and the World Health Organization for minimizing casualties despite frequent extreme weather.

Now, Havana is seeking to apply a similar model to a different threat: the possibility of military confrontation with the United States. On May 20, U.S. federal prosecutors indicted former Cuban President Raul Castro in connection with the 1996 shootdown of a plane that killed four Americans, marking the sharpest escalation in years.

Over the weekend, Cuba's Civil Defense Agency released a multi-page guide titled Family Guide to Protection Against Military Aggression, listing family responsibilities in the event of a U.S. attack and various safety procedures.

The document is based on Cuba's defense doctrine known as the War of the Entire People, adopted after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The doctrine envisions resisting foreign invasion by mobilizing the entire civilian population for guerrilla warfare, local militia forces, and civil defense networks, according to Yaffe, a professor of Latin American political economy at the University of Glasgow.

“Everyone in Cuba has military training… and is integrated into this national defense system,” she told Al Jazeera.

Castro's indictment is the latest escalation in a campaign of mounting pressure, including U.S. surveillance flights off Cuba in recent months, a U.S. Senate proposal to limit President Trump's authorization to use force, and executive orders declaring Cuba a “significant threat” to U.S. national security. Trump has bluntly said: “Cuba is next.”

Some analysts argue that Cuba is not entirely defenseless, despite power outages and fuel shortages caused by the U.S. oil embargo and the loss of energy supplies from Venezuela after President Nicolas Maduro was kidnapped and overthrown.

The Venezuela model ‘won’t work in Cuba’

When U.S. forces kidnapped Maduro on January 3, the speed of the operation shocked the world. But the 32 people killed in the fighting were Cubans—soldiers who resisted “fiercely,” according to Yaffe. Trump himself acknowledged this.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel declared on May 19 that any U.S. military action against Cuba would lead to a “bloodbath” and that the island is not a threat. “They talk about the Venezuela model, and the question is whether they will apply it in Cuba? It won’t work in Cuba. The story from Cuban leaders, and the reality of the Cuban people, is: ‘They think it was a fierce resistance? That was just 32 Cubans. Imagine if they come here, there will be 10 million people,’” Yaffe said.

Carlos Malamud, a Latin American analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid, agrees that Cuba is a different challenge from Venezuela. The Cuban military is better trained and equipped than its Venezuelan counterpart.

However, Sebastian Arcos, a Cuban-American director at the Institute of Cuban Studies at Florida International University, holds a contrasting view. “The Cuban military is obsolete. They have little chance against the U.S. Cuba is a harder target, not militarily, but because they have had time to prepare for a similar campaign,” he said.

Analysts agree that geography is key. Cuba's proximity to the U.S. means its “response capability,” including its air force, is far greater than what the U.S. faced in Caracas or Iran. Any attack on Cuba could cause damage to U.S. cities like Miami. Arcos believes Cuba could strike U.S. civilian centers to shift public opinion.

On May 25, Axios reported based on unverified U.S. intelligence that Cuba had purchased 300 military drones, planning to attack Guantanamo Bay, U.S. naval vessels, and the city of Key West. Yaffe and Malamud are skeptical, but Arcos calls it “plausible” given Cuba's close ties with Russia and China. Cuba denied the report, calling it a pretext for a U.S. attack and affirming its right to self-defense.

Domestic constraints differ

Beyond military calculations, analysts point to political constraints that make an invasion of Cuba far more complicated than Venezuela—and potentially damaging to Trump's domestic standing. A wave of migration from Cuba to the U.S. is a primary consequence, according to Yaffe.

“Any attack on Cuba would immediately trigger an uncontrolled mass migration, mainly by sea,” she said. For a president whose political identity is built on anti-immigration, this consequence should give Washington pause, especially with midterm elections in November approaching.

Meanwhile, Cuban Americans—many opposed to the Cuban government and its socialist system—hold significant representation in U.S. politics, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This community would never accept a Venezuela-style solution that preserves the current power structure under new management. For exiled Cubans, anything short of regime change is “unacceptable,” Malamud said.

Yaffe notes a divergence between Rubio and Trump. While Rubio “monopolizes Trump's ear on Cuba,” Trump favors deals and has a history of interest in business opportunities in Cuba. Trump has also said they “can't move to Cuba” until the war in Iran ends. A Maduro-style kidnapping of Castro would neither please the Cuban-American community nor achieve strategic results.

“I cannot see how kidnapping Raul Castro would somehow pressure the government to make concessions,” the professor said. Cuba's official motto is “Patria o muerte, venceremos” (Fatherland or death, we shall overcome). Arcos predicts a “halfway campaign between Venezuela and Iran, with airstrikes and no ground troops.”

Defense in times of economic crisis

Matias Brum, an assistant economics professor at ORT University Uruguay, warns that anything happening in Cuba—which faces a deepening economic crisis due to the loss of Venezuelan oil—would serve as a stark warning for the region. “I had the impression the U.S. would never invade, but they invaded and kidnapped Maduro. I would take Trump seriously now. I didn't before, but now I'm scared,” he said.

On May 21, Rubio proposed a new relationship between the two countries, offering $100 million in food and medicine to Havana, based on a previous offer by Trump. President Diaz-Canel had said he was open to accepting such aid. However, Rubio did not acknowledge the economic crisis is largely due to the decades-old U.S. embargo, blaming instead Cuba's leadership.

Regardless of how the crisis is explained, Malamud believes Cuba retains some advantages in deterring a U.S. attack compared to Venezuela, even if the deep humanitarian crisis could ultimately hinder this capability. “That is the key element, the difficulty of the Cuban situation, because the scale of the crisis… is a very difficult situation,” he said.

As decades of tension between the U.S. and Cuba reach a boiling point, time will tell whether the War of the Entire People doctrine remains a doctrine or a reality. In Havana, at least, Yaffe reports a slogan echoes across the island as pressure mounts: “Aqui no se rinde nadie—no one surrenders here.”