Trump's Loyal Voters Stand by Him Despite Economic Pain Ahead of Midterms

McConnellsburg, Pennsylvania – In a region long a stable stronghold for President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Calvin Ott, who runs a landscaping business, has kept his support intact even as life has grown far more expensive since the president returned to power last year.

"I'm 75 years old and I'm still working," Ott said as he sipped a Coors Light in the dim light of the Fulton Pub in McConnellsburg, where the town's roughly 1,000 residents tend to gather. He said he has been through quadruple bypass surgery, skin cancer and a range of heart problems, but he will keep voting Republican in next month's midterms.

Rising medical costs, prescription prices that have more than doubled since last year, and the impossibility of retiring as he nears 80 have not changed the mind of a man who has voted for Trump three times. "I support him 100%," Ott said.

In 2016, fewer than 6,000 people in Fulton County backed Trump's presidential campaign. Eight years later, that number had risen above 7,000, helping send him back to the White House. For Ott, his support is not so much a verdict on what Trump has done as on what Democrats would do if given power. "He's the only president who keeps his promises," he said.

Blaming the previous administration

The durable support for Trump runs deep in Republican strongholds like McConnellsburg. Voters like Ott form the president's base: working-class, white, without college degrees and alienated from Washington.

An AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey last month found that just 17% of American adults approve of how Trump is handling the cost of living, while slightly more than a quarter approve of how he is running the economy overall.

Even so, his most fervent supporters say their economic hardship has only worsened since Trump was re-elected, but unlike most Americans, they do not blame the president. Instead, they point to his predecessor, Joe Biden, who left office in January last year.

Sitting beside Ott at the bar was Rebecca Lashley, a retired nursing assistant. She believes Trump deserves time to fix Biden's policies. "Biden took four years to ruin everything. How can he fix it in two?" she asked.

Ott agreed: "You know what Biden left him? A big pile." The argument is one the White House repeats regularly. Since returning to office for a second term in 2025, Trump and members of his administration have insisted they bear no responsibility for rising living costs. On social media last month, the president wrote that "prices rising all over America are caused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden administration, not TRUMP."

Five hours' drive south, in deep-red Amelia County, Virginia, Terry Williams largely agreed with Trump. After a weekend breakfast, the delivery driver, who calls himself a "Trump-lican," offered sharp criticism of an economy he said a "deep state" is preventing the president from fixing. He said Trump only blames Biden because he cannot tell people the plain truth, and he laid primary blame on the Federal Reserve because "the answer to everything is printing money." "I believe this economy is an illusion and we're using fake money," Williams said.

"I have to sacrifice"

After campaigning on a promise to curb the stubborn inflation caused by the pandemic, Trump's second term has been marked by initiatives that drew broad opposition and pushed prices higher. His tariff policy, unveiled at a White House "Liberation Day" event last year, won very little support. AP polling shows nearly 65% of Americans blame Trump's policies for high costs.

The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimated that Trump's tariffs raised the average US household's tax burden by more than $1,000 last year. After the Supreme Court ruled most of the president's tariffs illegal in January, that estimate fell slightly to $820 for 2026. The effects are felt more sharply in Virginia, where, according to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, residents have paid roughly $6.2 billion more since the tariffs took effect, or nearly $1,800 per family.

Even so, some MAGA voters in the state, like Williams, still "believe" in tariffs and want to see them expanded. "I like the idea of a tariff system, so Americans don't get taxed," he said.

The war in Iran, however, may prove the biggest factor for Trump and Republicans in the midterms. As the conflict entered its eighth month, only 27% of registered voters approved of it, according to a New York Times/Siena poll. That figure was far higher among Trump's loyal base: 65%.

"If it needs to be done to save our republic, then do it," Williams said of the war, while voicing concern about rising gasoline prices. Since the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, fuel prices in the US have soared. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline is $4.29 a gallon, up more than $1.30 from September last year.

Trump has begun to acknowledge that the war and its economic fallout could cost his party control of Congress. "It could happen," he told reporters earlier this month, while arguing that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is something 100% of the public supports.

Most MAGA voters say they are willing to bear the cost of the Iran decision for the sake of national security. "We have to sacrifice so things get better. I don't care who you are. We make that sacrifice with him," Lashley said. Ott said higher fuel prices have forced him to add a fuel surcharge to customer bills and lay off more than a dozen employees. "I don't see a problem. I own a business, and I have to sacrifice," he said.

Trump's promises

Trump has repeatedly promised Americans they will eventually benefit from his policies. After launching a trade war with allies, Trump promised last year to use tariff revenue to pay people a $2,000 "dividend." "The people fighting tariffs are FOOLS!" he wrote on Truth Social in November, adding that "a dividend of at least $2,000/person (not including high earners!) will be paid to everyone."

His administration had refunded more than $100 billion by the end of August following the Supreme Court ruling, but that money went to businesses rather than directly to individuals. Ahead of the midterms, Trump keeps promising cash payouts. In a speech at the Republican National Committee's midterm conference in September, he said American adults would receive a $5,000 "Trump dividend" if his party "wins" next month's elections.

Polling shows the proposal backfires with independent voters, with 45% telling NBC News they would be less likely to support a candidate who backs it. But it plays well with Trump's base, who believe they deserve repayment from the government. "I think it would be great if the president could help everyone who needs it," Lashley said. "I've paid taxes my whole life. I deserve to get something back," Ott added.

"They're taking everything"

Most Americans say Trump's economic policies are a burden rather than a benefit. About seven in 10 Americans, including more than half of Republican voters, say his handling of the cost of living is "worse than expected," according to AP polling.

But MAGA voters say they remain steadfast with the president. Understanding why his hardest-core supporters stay loyal requires understanding how Trump built his political coalition in the first place. A New America study found that Trump's coalition is tightly bound and driven strongly by grievance against opposing cultural and political groups. Lashley reflected that sentiment when she blamed immigrants for the cost-of-living crisis. "They're taking over businesses in our country. They're taking everything," she said.

Lashley went further, saying she wished Trump could be president for life. "I wish he could be our president until he passes away. What happens when he's gone? That's what really worries me."

For Ott, the choice is not simply between an expensive economy and a cheaper one, but about what and who might come after Trump. "I'm afraid someone will take office who can't do the job, and we'll go downhill again. I worry about the Democrats," he said.

That loyalty could matter in November. In this year's Republican primaries, Trump proved primary voters will follow him. A string of wins by candidates he endorsed in Indiana, Kentucky and Texas further cemented his standing in the party.

Still, it is unclear whether this loyal but often low-turnout bloc can blunt a rising wave of Democratic support. Progressive and left-leaning candidates have rallied around a message of affordability and lower prices—an approach that resonates with voters who feel squeezed by Trump's policies. A Reuters/Ipsos survey in August found American voters favored Democrats over Republicans on the cost of living by 36% to 28%.

More than 70% of US voters who identify as MAGA said in a September PBS News/NPR/Marist poll that they are voting this time to support Trump. For Williams, who plans to vote for Republicans up and down the ballot in November, the economy is not the priority. He describes the choice as a battle between good and evil, and criticizes some Democrats' positions on transgender rights.

Ott said he remains behind the Republican Party out of optimism that the US economy will improve in the second half of the president's term. "[Trump] is going to do a lot more. This economy is going to be a lot better," he said.