DR Congo: Constitutional battle over 2028 election succession rules

President Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to end his term in 2028 under the current constitution. However, with more than two years remaining, a struggle over the rules governing what happens after his mandate is reshaping the country's politics.

In May, Tshisekedi declared he would not seek a third term but would accept if the Congolese people wanted him to continue. This revived opposition fears that constitutional reform could ultimately pave the way to bypass the current two-term limit. Under the existing constitution, the president is elected for a five-year term, renewable once, and provisions on the number and length of presidential terms are protected from constitutional amendment.

Tshisekedi's camp argues the country needs institutional reform. Meanwhile, critics fear the process could be used to alter presidential succession rules. The controversy unfolds as the DRC fights an insurgency in the east led by M23, an armed group within the political-military alliance Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), which controls Goma and Bukavu, capitals of North Kivu and South Kivu.

Referendum battle

Tensions escalated in June when Congo's parliament passed a law setting conditions for a referendum. The Constitutional Court ruled in July that the law complies with the constitution but raised concerns about some provisions. On August 10, President Tshisekedi formally asked the presidents of the National Assembly and Senate to review the law in light of the court's concerns. Parliament said it would put the re-examination on the agenda for its September session.

The law provides for a constituent assembly, followed by a referendum in cases described as "major dysfunction" of state institutions. Critics argue the mechanism could eventually be used to change provisions barring Tshisekedi from running for a third term. The government presents constitutional reform as a broader institutional issue, not a move to extend the president's tenure.

The main opposition group campaigning against the process is C64, or Article 64 alliance. The name references Article 64 of the DRC constitution, which urges citizens to resist anyone who comes to power in violation of the constitutional order. C64 says it will fight any attempt to use constitutional reform to extend Tshisekedi's tenure beyond 2028. The alliance announced plans for a nationwide campaign on September 15, with protests in Kinshasa expected to converge on the Palais du Peuple, the parliament building.

Bringing the fight to parliament

The controversy has spilled onto the streets. Thousands of protesters in Goma and Bukavu on July 28 opposed proposed constitutional amendments and any efforts to extend Tshisekedi's time in office. In Kinshasa, protesters are expected to gather at the Palais du Peuple. For C64, the chosen destination is deliberate: the alliance wants to bring its opposition to the central institution of the constitutional process.

Jean-Marc Kabund, a Congolese opposition politician, told Al Jazeera that no constitutional amendment, referendum, or legal maneuver should be allowed to bypass the current constitution. He warned that doing so while the country is at war could deepen divisions and threaten national unity.

A constitutional battle amid war

The constitutional dispute runs parallel to a conflict that has transformed eastern Congo. M23 and AFC have seized vast territories, including Goma and Bukavu. The Congolese government accuses Rwanda of backing M23, while Kigali denies it. The war also raises questions about the 2028 elections. Tshisekedi has warned he may not hold elections if fighting continues, citing the difficulty of organizing a credible vote when many areas are outside government control.

Emmanuel Bugama, a Congolese political analyst in Bunia, told Al Jazeera that national interest must be placed above political disputes. "The best interests of the nation should be prioritized over these political squabbles," he said.

Perspectives from Goma

In Goma, the debate is being watched from a city no longer under Kinshasa's control. Gentil Mulume, a civil society activist in Goma, told Al Jazeera that any constitutional change extending Tshisekedi's tenure would not be recognized in territories controlled by M23 and AFC. "If Tshisekedi dares to amend the constitution to extend his term, it will not be recognized here," he said.

Mulume said the controversy reflects deep divisions between Kinshasa and the east. He argued that Tshisekedi's continued rule could be seen as a form of domination, and self-determination should be part of the political debate. These statements show how the constitutional confrontation in Kinshasa is being interpreted in territories outside the government's effective control.

What do ordinary people know?

There is also a more fundamental question: how much do ordinary people understand about the proposed changes? Kevin Kalala, a 30-year-old phone card seller in Kinshasa, told Al Jazeera he does not know enough about the constitution to have an opinion. "We don't know what's in our constitution. The Congolese state should start by teaching us about the constitution," he said. Kalala said people need to be told which clauses need changing, why, and what the benefits would be. "I neither support nor oppose amending the constitution," he said.

Calls for dialogue

As tensions rise, Tshisekedi proposed a national dialogue involving political parties, civil society, and religious groups. On August 16 in Libreville, Gabon, he said he would soon address the nation on the vision and framework for the dialogue. The date and format have not been announced. Tshisekedi ruled out sitting with those he accuses of siding with Rwanda or the rebels.

Martin Fayulu, who competed against Tshisekedi in the 2018 presidential election, called for former President Joseph Kabila and Corneille Nangaa, the political leader of AFC, to take part. For now, the constitutional dispute runs alongside the war in the east and uncertainty around the 2028 elections. The question is no longer whether the constitution will change, but whether Congo's political forces can agree on rules for what happens when Tshisekedi's current term ends.

"We are certainly heading toward one of the most decisive phases of recent history," Bugama told Al Jazeera. "The country is under the control of an armed group, while the government in Kinshasa lectures about constitutional reform instead of dealing with what matters most."