Russian Expert Warns of Social Crisis Risk as Ukraine Losses Mount

Russia's ballistic missile attacks have begun causing record civilian casualties in Ukrainian cities as the country runs out of Patriot air defense systems to intercept them. Meanwhile, Ukraine's long-range strikes have destroyed Russia's fuel supplies.

With Russia's economy struggling, a top expert warned that social unrest could occur within a short period – and soon after lost his job.

Rising Civilian Casualties

On Tuesday, Russian missiles killed at least 10 people in Pechenihy, a town 40 kilometers east of Kharkiv in northern Ukraine. On Thursday, they killed 15 people in Kyiv, 3 in the western city of Zhytomyr, and wounded 40 at a border crossing between Odesa and Moldova.

Russia says it is targeting weapons factories in Kyiv, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces struck 30 residential buildings, a school, and a children's hospital.

The United Nations says Russia killed 437 people in July and wounded 2,610, surpassing the previous record set in June by 30%.

Civilian casualties continued to rise in August, as Ukraine ran out of Patriot interceptor missiles and has been unable to stop ballistic missile attacks since the beginning of the month.

As Zelensky pointed out, Ukraine's interception rate for cruise missiles and drones remains at 90%. But Russia is increasingly using ballistic missiles and has brought in 50 additional North Korean weapons, according to Ukrainian military intelligence.

Ukraine's Counteroffensive

Since June 25, Ukraine has launched a medium-range strike campaign to disrupt Russia's logistics and harass fuel and ammunition supplies so effectively that it has gained 233 square kilometers of territory this year.

By August 16, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces claimed to have put 228 supply ships out of action in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as destroyed 243 power plants, substations, and gas distribution centers in Crimea.

They also attacked relay antennas used to guide Russian drones and radar stations that detect Ukrainian counterattacks. On August 20, Ukraine struck drone launch pads in the city of Donetsk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk on the Azov Sea, as well as a fuel depot in the Kerch Strait used to supply Crimea.

Ukraine's long-range attacks serve another purpose: weakening Russia's economy to fund the war.

On August 15, Ukraine sent two Flamingo cruise missiles into the Progress Rocket and Space Center, 800 kilometers east of Moscow, despite Russia using four A-50 early warning aircraft and reporting the downing of 822 Ukrainian drones that day.

Ukraine says it hit a workshop assembling engines for Soyuz rockets, causing a fire that spread over half a hectare.

Russia is using Soyuz to launch satellites for the Rassvet constellation to replace its dependence on the US Starlink system, after Ukraine cut Russia's Starlink access on February 1. Russia needs satellites to increase the speed and accuracy of counter-battery fire against Ukrainian positions. Losing that capability is partly why Ukraine has gained ground this year.

“A Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle can put 20 satellites into orbit,” said Ukrainian electronics expert Serhiy Beskrestnov. “To create a basic satellite constellation in orbit, Russia needs to carry out 12-15 launches.”

The next day, Ukraine burned down a 25-hectare warehouse belonging to the Wildberries online retail chain – Russia's equivalent of Amazon – and said it destroyed 7 of Wildberries' 10 largest logistics centers.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 28 that the Kremlin is monitoring the damage at Wildberries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted on Thursday that he could provide government funds to rebuild Wildberries, saying that “logistics and warehouse capacity certainly needs to be restored, including with government support.”

Ukraine has also succeeded in destroying Russian oil refineries and weakening its gasoline supplies.

Recently, Ukraine attacked the Ust-Luga oil refinery, the Taneco refinery in Tatarstan, and the Perm refinery, 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Similar attacks this year have reduced Russia's gasoline supply. The Izvestia newspaper reported that only 28% of gas stations nationwide could provide fuel this week, citing the GdeBENZ mobile app that tracks fuel availability in real time.

Izvestia said only 5 gas stations in Moscow sell high-octane AI-98 fuel. Russians have posted videos of Rosgvardia police standing outside gas stations to prevent fights among drivers in recent months.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said lower-grade fuel is being supplied to ease market tensions and confirmed Russia is now importing refined fuel for the domestic market.

“We hope some refineries will soon complete maintenance work and the situation will improve significantly,” Novak told journalist Pavel Zarubin of Vesti, but that may be wishful thinking. Ukraine has attacked Russia's largest refineries not just once but multiple times. On Wednesday [August 19], they attacked a refining unit at Ufa – which was being repaired after a previous attack. Ufa is 1,300 kilometers from Ukraine.

Ukraine also struck key military targets during the week, including the Kamenyy Kombinat plant in Rostov – which produces solid rocket fuel for missiles – and the Savasleika air base, where MiG fighters carrying Kh-47M2 ballistic missiles take off.

Russia's Economy Struggles

Some Russian economists have begun warning of impending political and social unrest due to the slowing economy.

Andrey Klepach, chief economist at Vnesheconombank – a state bank funding the Kremlin's national projects – warned on August 18 that: “Losses from Ukraine's military attacks… are becoming a significant macroeconomic barrier to Russia's economic growth.”

“I believe Russia will not collapse, but I am almost certain we will reach a social crisis.”

He was dismissed after making those comments during a discussion at the Moscow Exchange's Nikitsky Club.

Russians are increasingly withdrawing savings, The Washington Post reported. Meanwhile, businesses are increasing “voluntary” contributions to the state defense budget, in addition to having to pay for their own air defense systems, adding further strain to the economy.

At this week's meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects, Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's attacks “certainly” cause damage, adding that “the overall economic results are modest but positive.”

That damage is reflected in the $1.18 billion Putin recently disbursed to support regional budgets, on top of earlier financial aid. About $52 million of that is for Crimea.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry estimates that every dollar spent on drone attacks causes fivefold damage to the Russian economy.