Experts Warn Infectious Diseases Like Hantavirus and Ebola Becoming More Frequent and Dangerous

The world is becoming less resilient to outbreaks of infectious diseases, experts warn, as health authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda rush to contain an Ebola outbreak.

The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) said in a report published Monday that “as outbreaks become more frequent, they are also becoming more damaging,” warning that pandemic risk is far outstripping investment in preparedness and “the world is not getting safer.”

According to the report, outbreaks are becoming more likely due to the climate crisis and armed conflict, while collective action is undermined by geopolitical fragmentation and selfish commercial interests.

The GPMB is a group of experts established by the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018 after the first major Ebola outbreak in West Africa and just before the Covid-19 pandemic. Its latest findings come amid global attention on a hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship and a day after a public health emergency of international concern was declared over at least 87 Ebola deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

These two outbreaks are “just the latest crises in our turbulent world,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the opening of the World Health Assembly in Geneva.

WHO Representative in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Anne Ancia, told Reuters that in response to the Ebola outbreak, the organization had exhausted its stockpile of protective equipment in the capital Kinshasa and was preparing a cargo plane to bring more supplies from a warehouse in Kenya. Aid organizations the International Rescue Committee and Doctors Without Borders said they have deployed outbreak response teams.

In Geneva, Professor Matthew Kavanagh, Director of the Center for Global Health Policy and Politics at Georgetown University, argued that aid cuts may have contributed to the world “chasing after a very dangerous pathogen.” He said: “Because initial tests looked for the wrong Ebola strain, we got false negatives and lost weeks of response. When the alarm was raised, the virus had already moved along major transport routes and crossed borders. This crisis did not happen in a vacuum. When you pull billions of dollars out of WHO and dismantle frontline USAID programs, you destroy the very surveillance systems designed to catch these viruses early. We are seeing the direct, deadly consequences of treating global health security like an optional expense.”

The GPMB report notes that new technologies, including novel vaccine platforms like mRNA, have “developed at an unprecedented pace” and billions of dollars have been invested in pandemic preparedness and response. But the world is “backsliding” on measures such as ensuring equitable access to vaccines, tests, and treatments. During recent mpox outbreaks, vaccines took nearly two years to reach affected countries in Africa, even slower than the 17 months it took for Covid-19 vaccines to be distributed.

The GPMB warns that outbreaks have eroded trust in government, civil liberties, and democratic norms, amplified by politicized responses and attacks on scientific institutions. These effects have outlasted the crises themselves and left societies “less resilient to respond to the next emergency.”

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, co-chair of the GPMB and former President of Croatia, said: “The world does not lack solutions. But without trust and equity, those solutions will not reach those who need them most. Political leaders, industry, and civil society can still change the trajectory of global preparedness – if they turn commitments into measurable progress before the next crisis hits.”

Countries missed a deadline to finalize a pandemic agreement before this week's World Health Assembly in Geneva, following disagreements over ensuring access to medical tests, vaccines, and treatments in exchange for sharing information about any emerging pathogens on their territory.

The GPMB calls on political leaders to establish an independent, permanent monitoring mechanism to track pandemic risk, finalize the pandemic agreement to ensure equitable access to vaccines, diagnostic tests, and medicines, and set up financing to ensure immediate preparedness and response to outbreaks.

Joy Phumaphi, co-chair of the GPMB and former Health Minister of Botswana, warned: “If trust and cooperation continue to fracture, every country will be more vulnerable when the next pandemic occurs.”