Trump administration targets climate-vulnerable nations with immigration restrictions

A Guardian analysis reveals that President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown disproportionately targets citizens from nations most vulnerable to climate-driven displacement. Of the 39 countries subject to U.S. entry bans or restrictions, 22 rank among the world’s most climate-vulnerable.

According to data from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, Chad and Niger—the two most climate-vulnerable countries—are under complete U.S. entry bans. Sudan, Somalia and Sierra Leone, all in the top ten for climate impact, face similar prohibitions.

Professor Danielle Wood of the University of Notre Dame noted: ‘Nearly all of the most vulnerable countries are on the banned or visa-suspended list.’ She pointed out that these nations have increasingly suffered from stronger storms, droughts, floods and coastal erosion in recent years.

Honduras is a stark example. When Hurricane Mitch struck in 1998, killing 7,000 people, many displaced families had no choice but to migrate to the United States. Evelyn, a Honduran who asked to be identified only by her first name, recalled: ‘There were bodies of people and dead animals floating in the water. The house was destroyed, all my belongings washed away. I got sick from mosquitoes. My family in the U.S. said: bring the children here, don’t stay any longer.’

But the Trump administration has made seeking refuge far harder. Besides entry bans, it has moved to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for citizens from Honduras and 12 other countries currently residing in the U.S. Nearly half of those nations rank among the most climate-vulnerable.

The U.S. Supreme Court is now weighing appeals to end TPS for Syrians and Haitians—both countries recently hit by drought and major storms. Experts say the clampdown comes as the United Nations estimates that extreme heat, drought, storms and floods have displaced 250 million people globally over the past decade—an average of 70,000 per day.

Jocelyn Perry, climate displacement program manager at Refugees International, warned: ‘People in developing countries on the U.S. banned list are struggling with crop failures, rising seas and other changes driven by global temperatures. If a house in Florida can withstand a Category 4 hurricane, there are people in the world who cannot cope with that, and they are bearing the heaviest consequences.’

President Trump has dismissed the need for climate action, calling it a ‘hoax.’ His administration has largely dismantled the refugee program and slashed foreign aid. A study in The Lancet projects that cuts to USAID could lead to the deaths of about 4.5 million children in sub-Saharan Africa over the next five years.

Efforts to update the immigration system to address climate factors have stalled. The Climate Displacement Act, introduced by Democratic lawmakers in 2021 and 2023, would have amended the Immigration and Nationality Act to grant legal status to climate migrants, but it never passed. Senator Ed Markey, the bill’s sponsor, said: ‘Trump's attacks on foreign aid, his contempt for climate science and his attacks on immigrants all come from the same script.’

Given the current political climate, prospects for a new climate migration framework appear dim. Yael Schacher of Refugees International noted: ‘If trends shift, it will probably be toward adaptation funding to help people stay where they are, rather than issuing new visas. Right now, sympathy for immigrants—even the most severely persecuted—is near zero.’