Sudan's Prolonged War Threatens a Lost Generation

The war in Sudan is entering a dangerous phase as both warring parties declare readiness to prolong the conflict. RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, recently stated his troops are prepared to fight 'until 2040 if necessary.' His rival, Army Chief and Transitional Sovereignty Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, vowed to fight until Sudan is 'purified' of the RSF and estimated the war could last until 2033.

UNDP representative in Sudan Luca Renda warned 'the longer the war continues, the greater the misery,' describing the conflict as an 'economy of suffering.'

A joint UNDP and Institute for Security Studies report published last month says more than 150,000 people have been killed since fighting began in 2023. Nearly 15 million are displaced, 24 million face food shortages, and at least 19 million lack clean water and sanitation.

Economic Collapse

The report forecasts that under a 'protracted conflict' scenario lasting until 2030, Sudan's GDP in 2043 would be $34.5 billion lower than it would have been without war, per capita GDP would drop by about $1,700, and over 60% of the population would live in extreme poverty.

'A conflict that extends to 2030 will push 34 million more people into extreme poverty – that's the entire population of Ghana,' Renda said. He warned that a $1,700 drop in average per capita income in Sudan 'is the difference between a family that can eat and one that cannot, between a child who goes to school and one who must work.'

Though Sudan is rich in natural resources like oil, gold, and some of Africa's most fertile farmland, war has destroyed the infrastructure needed to sustain the economy. 'Natural resources don't feed people on their own,' Renda said, 'and each year of war pushes those resources further out of reach.'

Health System Collapse

Health indicators show an even more severe long-term crisis. Since the war began, an estimated 70-80% of health facilities in conflict zones have stopped operating due to targeted attacks and looting. At least 145 attacks on health facilities and personnel have been recorded, leaving about 65% of Sudan's population without adequate medical care. In the capital Khartoum, only one in four hospitals still functions.

The report shows Sudan has seen increased deaths from non-communicable diseases that existed before the war, but the situation worsened after fighting escalated. An estimated 61,000 conflict-related deaths occurred between April 2023 and June 2024 alone. Infant mortality rates are expected to deteriorate significantly, with Sudan becoming one of the worst-performing low-income countries in Africa by 2043.

Dr. Athar Abdalla Mohamed, a community medicine resident at the Sudan Medical Specialization Board, warned the health system collapse's consequences could last years after the war. 'A child who misses a vaccination today could become part of a preventable disease outbreak years later,' she said.

Lost Generation

Education and displacement trends are equally alarming. '19 million school-age children have had their education disrupted, and only one in five schools are open,' Renda said. 'We are talking about a lost generation.' He also warned displacement is accelerating state collapse, as Sudan endures one of the world's worst displacement crises. 'When doctors flee, clinics close. When teachers leave, schools close,' Renda explained. 'Displacement doesn't just uproot people – it destroys communities and the fabric of the state, making reconstruction ever more difficult.'

Resilience

Renda believes recovery remains possible if the war ends and reforms are implemented. Under a 'Sudan rising' scenario based on peace, governance reform, and economic reconstruction, Sudan's GDP could reach $58.2 billion by 2043 – nearly $20 billion higher than current trends. Average economic growth could accelerate to 5%, while 17.3 million people could escape extreme poverty.

'Our model shows what can happen with peace this year and serious investment,' Renda said. 'It's the work of a generation, but also a reason for hope and an undeniable argument to do everything possible to end the war now.'

Despite the scale of destruction, Dr. Athar is optimistic that ongoing recovery efforts can lay the foundation for rebuilding Sudan. However, she warned Sudan is approaching a critical tipping point if basic services are not maintained. 'Sudan cannot continue at this pace,' she said. 'Long-term outcomes depend heavily on whether efforts are made now to preserve essential services and invest in recovery before the damage becomes irreversible.'

With both Hemedti and Burhan publicly signaling readiness for years, even decades, of war, Sudan risks spiraling into state collapse, economic decay, and humanitarian devastation that could define an entire generation.