War in Israel Backfires as Gulf States Back US-Iran Deal

Doha, Qatar – The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—have expressed support for the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed last week between Iran and the United States. This move reflects a desire to end the conflict rather than any newfound trust in Tehran.

Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Israel has sought to isolate Iran and its network of regional proxies. However, Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, combined with Tehran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf states, have forced these countries to reassess their relationship with their neighbor.

“The ongoing conflict has compelled Gulf states to pursue a more pragmatic relationship with Tehran, one that includes enhanced dialogue to prevent confrontation,” said Farah al-Qawasmi, a researcher at the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University.

Not Trust in Iran, but a Desire to De-escalate

Although Iran directly targeted Gulf cities, these countries continue to prioritize diplomacy over military confrontation. “Gulf states still see diplomacy as a better tool than force to change Iran’s behavior,” said Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in security studies at King’s College London.

Pinfold noted that Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz with drones and missiles, not nuclear weapons, so the Gulf’s top priority is addressing this immediate threat rather than Tehran’s nuclear program, which they view as “tomorrow’s problem.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s three-day tour of the Gulf was aimed at reassuring the GCC that the deal with Iran would not strengthen Tehran.

Gulf Takes the Lead

According to Mehran Haghirian, research director at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, Gulf states are now better positioned to shape the outcome of US-Iran negotiations than they were in 2015, when the JCPOA was signed. Qatar is acting as a co-mediator, representing GCC interests, while Articles 5 and 6 of the MoU place the Gulf at the center of the agreement.

Among the GCC’s biggest concerns is the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran demanding shipping fees and calling for a regional investment fund for Iran. However, US Vice President JD Vance said the fund is financed by the Gulf alliance, while Secretary of State Rubio insisted that regional allies would not be asked to contribute.

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani called the reported $300 billion figure for a reconstruction fund for Iran “ambitious,” and no Gulf state has yet commented on contributing.

Maximum Pressure and Realignment

When US President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain believed they had found a partner in Washington. This led to a “maximum pressure” period that escalated regional tensions. The 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq-Khurais oil facilities and ships off Fujairah were Iran’s first response, but they also triggered a rebalancing of relations.

The UAE and Iran restored ties in 2022, and a Saudi-Iran agreement brokered by China was signed in 2023.

Conflict Fuels Pragmatic Trend

While Israel has increased its presence in the Gulf, even deploying its Iron Dome missile defense system to the UAE, Gulf states view both Iran and Israel as destabilizing actors. But patience and pragmatism persist. Qatar, despite being hit by Iranian drone and missile attacks, continues to mediate between the US and Iran.

“All six states have been attacked, and that really is a very difficult level of foreign policy decision-making for any state,” Haghirian said. “But pragmatism has emerged in this context to engage with Iran and actually speak for themselves at the negotiations. This war has triggered a complete rebalancing of the entire region.”