Far-right Trump fan’s shock victory deals blow to Colombia’s traditional conservatives

Far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Iván Cepeda have less than three weeks to fight for about 3.6 million votes that went to neither in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday.

The gap is far from small: De la Espriella leads Cepeda by just over 670,000 votes – 43.7% vs. 40.9%.

Although polls showed the wealthy lawyer gaining ground, they consistently pointed to a solid advantage for the senator – backed by leftist President Gustavo Petro. This made De la Espriella’s first-round victory a surprise for most Colombian analysts and politicians.

A fan of Donald Trump and other far-right leaders in the region, he campaigned amid a series of controversies and with a promise to end Colombia’s decades-long armed conflict in 90 days – a conflict that has claimed nearly half a million lives.

His lead on Sunday is seen as a sign that the far-right has overtaken Colombia’s traditional conservative forces, reflected in the collapse of right-wing senator Paloma Valencia.

A loyalist of former President Álvaro Uribe Vélez (in office 2002-2010), Valencia had run second in polls for months but lost momentum in the final weeks, winning just 6.9% of the vote.

“What really helped De la Espriella was Valencia’s collapse,” said political scientist Yan Basset. “There was a tactical shift among right-wing voters toward De la Espriella – who emerged as the safest right-wing candidate to make it to the second round.”

Another political scientist, Nadia Jimena Pérez Guevara, argued that De la Espriella “consolidated the vote of disgruntled citizens, not only those opposed to Petro and leftist policies but also those simply fed up with politics.”

Both analysts described the lawyer’s first-round win as a “surprise” and believe the left faces a tough, though not impossible, task ahead of the decisive runoff on June 21. Candidates who came second have come from behind to win in 1998 and 2014.

De la Espriella and Cepeda offer completely opposite approaches to the resurgence of violence – now at its highest since the historic 2016 peace deal between the government and most of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) groups.

The lawyer supports a military alliance with the US and Israel, a total confrontation with criminal groups, and building super-max prisons. The senator backs Petro’s “total peace” strategy – negotiating the disarmament of all criminal groups.

On Monday morning, Cepeda challenged De la Espriella to a debate. In his Sunday night speech, he described his opponent as a “misogynist,” “homophobe,” and “lawyer for paramilitary and drug trafficking groups.” De la Espriella called his rival and President Petro a “criminal pair” and “wretched criminals,” while attacking the president as a “wretched drug addict.”

President Petro stirred controversy by refusing to acknowledge preliminary results released by the National Civil Registry – the independent public body responsible for organizing elections – alleging without evidence that the results included “800,000 extra people.”

Guevara described the accusations – later repeated by Cepeda in his speech – as “unhealthy” for Colombia’s democracy.

She added: “It seems a mistake for Cepeda’s first reaction to focus on that issue rather than speaking directly to his supporters and potential supporters about the road ahead… this plays into the hands of those who want to equate De la Espriella and Cepeda – when in fact they represent completely different styles of leadership.”