Iraqi Kurdish parties face balancing act amid Iran strikes

Iranian Kurdish opposition parties based in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have been on high alert since the US and Israel launched an air campaign against Iran on February 28. Their bases in Iraq, as well as inside Iranian territory, have been pushed to the frontline of the war.

The possibility of Kurdish fighters joining the fight to topple Tehran's government has been widely discussed. US President Donald Trump and Israel have suggested that arming these forces could shift the balance of power inside Iran, where Kurds make up about 10% of the population.

Some leaders of these parties told Al Jazeera that they still have military units and organizational structures inside Kurdish areas of Iran, alongside their headquarters and bases in northern Iraq.

The Kurdish movement on both sides of the border flourished after Iraq's defeat in the 1990-1991 Gulf War, when a no-fly zone was established in northern Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government gained autonomy. Iranian Kurdish groups, from leftist to nationalist, were particularly safe after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

On February 22, 2026, five Kurdish groups based in Iraq and western Iran formed the Union of Kurdish Political Forces in Iran in response to the suppression of protests. Since the war began, their military and political facilities in Iraq have been hit hard by Iranian drones and missiles.

Kako Alyar, a member of the politburo of the Komala party of Iranian Kurdistan, said his party has dormant networks that took part in anti-government protests in Iran in December and January before being bloodily suppressed by security forces. He also said that since the war started, 13 fighters linked to his party have been killed in Iranian attacks.

“The outbreak of war has changed the situation in the Kurdish region, especially as the Iranian government tightens security and suppresses protests. The party has not received any military support from the US, Europe, or Arab countries, despite requesting it,” Alyar explained.

President Trump has made shifting statements about the role of Kurdish groups in the US-Israeli military campaign. However, there are reports that US intelligence has cooperated with Kurdish fighters, and the Iraq-Iran border area has been hit particularly hard since the start of the war. Some analysts suggest Washington may seriously consider having Kurdish groups launch ground operations inside Iran.

Iranian opposition fighters are skeptical about the success of a large-scale military campaign in Iranian Kurdistan, calling it risky and potentially leading to heavy casualties.

“Right now, the risks are very high, especially as Iran has deployed dense forces in the Kurdish region and along the border with the Kurdistan region,” Alyar said.

The Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq has asked Iranian Kurdish parties to avoid activities that could harm local security and interests, fearing Iranian retaliation.

Many Iranian Kurdish groups, estimated to have thousands of fighters, have long opposed Tehran from bases in northern Iraq and along the Iraq-Iran border.

However, Iranian opposition leaders are cautious about US intentions. Rebaz Sharifi, leader of the opposition Kurdistan Freedom Party of Iran, told Al Jazeera: “They do not want to support forces inside Iran to overthrow the regime. The goal is to weaken Iran's influence in the Middle East.” He also dismissed social media reports that his group received weapons or military aid from the US or other countries.

Iranian forces continue military operations against Iranian Kurdish groups in northern Iraq, including airstrikes on their bases. Iranian state media confirmed attacks on “anti-Iran separatist forces” in rugged areas near the Iran-Iraq border. Sharifi estimated that his party's bases have been attacked more than 80 times since the start of the war.

Before the war, the Kurdistan Regional Government pressured these parties to limit their activities to protect the autonomous region. But just hours after the US and Israel struck Iran in February, retaliatory attacks on US assets in Iraq's Kurdistan region drew the area into the conflict. Economic targets such as oil fields are also suspected of being targeted by drones and missiles.

“We have thousands of fighters… We could do more inside Iran, but we put the security and stability of the Kurdistan region first and do not want to harm Kurds in Iraq,” Sharifi said.

Iranian-backed armed groups in Iraq have also suffered numerous US airstrikes, including attacks on Saudi Arabia attributed to these groups.

Analysts say Iranian Kurdish parties face a highly complex dilemma. Expert Soran Palani commented: “Iraq's Kurdistan region has given these parties political, organizational, and military space, but at the same time made the region vulnerable to the consequences of any confrontation between them and Tehran.”

“The lack of direct support from Arab, European, and US actors is one of the most prominent factors preventing Kurdish parties from making an escalation decision,” Palani added, pointing out that Iran has built deep influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and supports allies in Palestine. “Arab countries do not provide similar support to Arab-Iranian opposition, especially in the Ahwaz region… This reality makes it difficult to expect Kurdish parties to receive direct Arab support if they decide to open a military front inside Iran.”

The Iraqi government has said it will not allow the country to become a launching pad for attacks on neighboring countries.

The biggest question for Iranian Kurdish parties now is whether the current war will turn into a regime change project in Tehran. For many Kurds inside and outside Iran, the collapse of the regime could be a historic opportunity, but it could also lead to a security vacuum and major instability. The next phase of the conflict could be decisive for Kurds in Iran, Iran, the US, Iraq, and the entire region.