Bosnia and Herzegovina: Election Reinforces Divided Landscape, Future Uncertain

Bosnia and Herzegovina's latest general election, held on October 4, has restored a familiar landscape that has persisted for three decades: parties organized primarily along ethnic lines — what many call nationalist — won decisive victories. The outcome came as no surprise, and analysts say the country is being pushed back 30 years, facing an even bleaker future.

Deadlock Persists After Two Years of Crisis

The past two years are regarded as the gravest period of crisis since the war, and Sunday's election results offer little hope of improvement. The specter of nationalism, division and open attacks on sovereignty and territorial integrity only reinforces the notion that a "war continuing by peaceful means" is underway — meaning armed conflict ended three decades ago, but hostility, objectives and the struggle for power persist through political, economic, diplomatic and informational channels.

The House of Peoples Remains in the Hands of Anti-Bosnia Forces

Bosnia's complex electoral system — one state, two entities, the Brcko District, three constituent peoples, 10 cantons and 144 cities and municipalities — is seen as a textbook example of how to create an impossible state. Explaining how government is formed after elections, from cantonal assemblies to entity and state institutions, including the House of Peoples of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Assembly — a body that is nearly impossible to explain — is even more difficult.

This House of Peoples has been the main instrument blocking the country's path to European Union and NATO membership over the past two years. Delegates from the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) and the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) — the party that has dominated Republika Srpska for two decades — have repeatedly coordinated to block the body's work, walking out of sessions and breaking quorum when the agenda did not suit them, often at moments when the most important issues were being decided.

In the latest election, these two parties once again secured significant shares of the Croat and Serb vote at both entity and state levels. They will continue to be sought as coalition partners when a new government is formed, holding at least three delegates each in the state-level House of Peoples, and will naturally dictate options, rules and laws aligned with their interests.

Pro-Bosnia Parties Divided and Complacent

Against this backdrop, the third bloc — pro-Bosnia or Bosniak — is unlikely to transform verbal patriotism into practical action, as has been the case for roughly the past 20 years. However, this country has endured far worse tragedies in its recent past — invasion, ethnic cleansing, war crimes, genocide — and the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina do not easily abandon their millennia-old homeland.

Pro-Bosnia/Bosniak parties — of which there are dozens — are deeply divided, conflicted and power-hungry. Many have questionable leadership tied to inglorious actions and ideologies. They stand at a critical crossroads. If they continue to pursue a "as long as we're alright" policy, no internal or external enemy is needed — enemies that still exist and have not diminished since the bloody 1990s — to bring the country to ruin.

The Party of Democratic Action (SDA) — seen as the party with the capacity to build a state — appears set to return to power, mainly due to the inadequacy of three parties across different ideological spectrums rather than its own competence, intelligence or qualities. The party has an opportunity, even if only to try to repair the mess for which it bears primary responsibility. For those who know the party well, optimistic prospects are slim, but it won the largest share of the vote in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), and that voter will must be respected.

Pragmatic America and Bewildered Europe

Amid a traditionally dirty campaign — with polling stations equipped with modern technology for the first time (electronic ballot scanning and results published just hours after polls closed marking a major step forward), plus months of negotiations, coalition-building and internal deal-making — the poor, the sick, the hopeless, a shattered society and an exhausted economy remain.

While neighboring Serbia and Croatia rapidly strengthen their militaries, spending billions of dollars on fighter jets, drones, missiles and other weapons systems, Bosnia has only a small army of about 10,000 professional soldiers, nominally unified but in reality divided. Police forces, especially at state level, are no more unified. Border police and prosecutors, by contrast, remain politically controlled by forces that appear more loyal to Serbia and Croatia than to Bosnia.

Meanwhile, the United States is gradually retreating from its unwritten role as Bosnia's patron — though it maintains the Dayton Peace Agreement and emphasizes the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity — and is increasingly leaning toward pragmatic interests, particularly financial ones. The EU appears unsure what to do with itself, let alone with small Bosnia. The EU expects domestic authorities, both old and new, to implement reforms and comply with European law, while knowing full well that is unlikely soon. Yet a formula exists: first, the EU could require member state Croatia to ensure its sister party HDZ BiH stops supporting those seeking to dismantle the very state whose citizenship and passports they hold.

Poorest and Leading in Organized Crime and Corruption

Bosnia is one of the poorest countries in Europe and among the hardest hit by organized crime and corruption. No one knows the exact population because the last census in 2013 remains disputed. Official turnout in Sunday's election was just over 40 percent, based on a voter roll of 3.4 million, though the actual population is estimated at under 2.5 million, indicating a significantly higher real turnout among residents.

Hundreds of thousands of people, many young and educated, have left for prosperous countries in recent years. They simply want a normal life and no longer dwell on the painful question that has haunted the country for decades: Can Bosnia "survive" when three nationalist parties return to power, while it has fewer and fewer friends in a world changing fundamentally?

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.