Southeast Asia Energy Ministers Meet Amid Iran Conflict

Southeast Asian energy ministers are meeting this week to discuss regional energy security, as supply chains are disrupted by the US-Israel war targeting Iran.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting takes place on Wednesday and Thursday, as the region seeks to reduce its dependence on energy supply chains upended by conflict in the Middle East.

The talks in Manila, Philippines, are expected to cover a range of energy cooperation and clean energy initiatives, including a fuel-sharing framework and regional grid integration.

ASEAN, one of the world's fastest-growing economic blocs with a combined GDP of more than $4.2 trillion, relies heavily on imported oil and natural gas.

Before the Iran conflict erupted in late February, the 11 ASEAN member states imported about half of their oil needs from the Middle East, leaving them vulnerable to tightened supply as the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.

The Philippines, which currently chairs ASEAN, declared a national energy emergency just weeks after the conflict began, amid warnings that fuel supplies could run out within 45 days.

Other ASEAN economies, including Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia, have also rolled out energy-saving measures, from work-from-home arrangements to fuel rationing.

Rising demand

"What happens in global energy markets can quickly reach our shores, affecting the cost and availability of fuel, disrupting industries and putting pressure on households," Philippine Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said in a statement on Sunday ahead of the meeting.

"Our ASEAN chairmanship is an opportunity to translate regional cooperation into practical arrangements that strengthen our collective ability to prepare for and respond to disruptions."

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while Southeast Asia's per capita energy demand has risen nearly 30 percent over the past decade, the region's oil output has fallen 40 percent from its 1990s peak.

Electricity demand in the region of more than 700 million people is forecast to grow by an average of 5.4 percent a year between 2026 and 2030, according to the IEA.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on Monday that Southeast Asia will face challenges in meeting rising energy demand amid an "uncertain global energy landscape".

"Energy security must be embedded in decisions across the entire system, from oil reserves and gas infrastructure to power grids and using energy more efficiently," Birol said in a statement.

"Closer cooperation will help ASEAN countries make better use of collective resources and respond more effectively when disruptions occur."

Dinita Setyawati, head of Southeast Asia research at energy think tank Ember, said ASEAN ministers would bring differing priorities to the table.

"For the Philippines, it may be partial participation in the ASEAN Power Grid through secured financing and a governance mechanism overseeing undersea cables," Setyawati told Al Jazeera.

"For Singapore, it may be further strengthening commitments from neighbouring countries on clean electricity exports, for example the Singapore-Indonesia interconnection," she added. "There will be countries interested in developing a regional carbon market to expand financing for clean energy."

Integration hurdles

Despite decades of effort, ASEAN has struggled to implement plans for deeper energy integration within the bloc.

Only 9 of 18 projects identified as priorities under the ASEAN Power Grid initiative have been completed since the plan was first proposed in the late 1990s.

Unlike the European Union, ASEAN has no central supranational body and cannot enact or enforce laws, a structure critics say limits the bloc's effectiveness.

Laurence Delina, an associate professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology specialising in Southeast Asian energy policy, said ASEAN's declarations have long outpaced its achievements, with cooperation largely confined to bilateral energy-sharing agreements.

"The bloc does not have enforcement powers like the EU," Delina told Al Jazeera.

Delina said regional grid integration would be as much a political challenge as a technical one.

"I don't know whether we will see it happen in my lifetime," Delina said. "Even though it is one region, contexts across countries are really different. This is not really a regional market. Each country is very different."

Setyawati of Ember expressed optimism that ASEAN ministers would commit more financing to renewable energy and electrification to reduce fuel dependence.

"Current data for Southeast Asia shows electrification accounts for about 25 percent of total final energy consumption," Setyawati said.