Colombia Presidential Election: Far-Right Candidate Surges to First-Round Lead

Less than two hours after polling stations closed on Sunday (May 31), Colombia's presidential race was set for a runoff between two candidates: far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Senator Iván Cepeda.

While the overall outcome wasn't a surprise to many, de la Espriella's strong performance shifted pollsters' forecasts. Cepeda, chosen by incumbent President Gustavo Petro as his successor, had been expected to get the most votes based on opinion surveys.

Instead, de la Espriella took the top spot with 43.74% of the vote, while Cepeda reached only 40.90%. Supporters of de la Espriella, a criminal defense attorney, held wild celebrations in the coastal city of Barranquilla, where he has his office.

“Colombia has won, and with more than 10 million votes, democracy has won,” said Elsa Suarez, a de la Espriella voter living in Bogota.

De la Espriella follows the template of politicians like Donald Trump in the U.S. and Javier Milei in Argentina – flashy media figures who win despite little political experience. He pledges to return the country to “law and order,” shrink the national government, advocate traditional family values, and use an “iron fist” to crack down on crime, building large prisons modeled after those of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele.

Analysts say de la Espriella's populist message resonated with voters in Colombia's interior, where urban crime is a growing concern. The electoral map showed de la Espriella defeating Cepeda in 16 of the country's 32 provinces, mainly in central Colombia and along the border with Venezuela.

“In central areas and closer to the capital, people prioritize security,” explained Laura Bonilla, deputy director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation (PARES). By contrast, de la Espriella's security message failed to convince voters along the coast and border regions affected by rebel violence. Bonilla said people there value the socioeconomic issues that Cepeda represents.

De la Espriella's success also highlights growing anti-incumbent sentiment in Colombia. The lawyer, who had never run for public office before, defeated his main right-wing rival, Senator Paloma Valencia, backed by former President Alvaro Uribe. Initially, the election was predicted to be a tight race between Valencia and de la Espriella, but Valencia got less than 7% of the vote.

Miguel Silva, a Colombian political consultant, attributed some of de la Espriella's success to his campaign message, drawing a line between those who benefited from the government and those who didn't. “He succeeded by describing himself and those he represents as 'Los Nunca' (The Never) and Paloma and her followers as 'Los Siempre' (The Always),” Silva said.

In Bogota, the only interior province that voted for Cepeda, supporters of the leftist candidate were shocked by the result. “Everyone is a bit surprised,” said Juan Camilo Rodriguez, a Cepeda voter. “These results don't match the polls.”

President Petro urged voters to wait for official counting, dismissing preliminary results. Cepeda initially expressed skepticism but later acknowledged no evidence of fraud, as he lost to de la Espriella by over 670,000 votes. Experts warned Cepeda was wasting precious time focusing on fraud allegations instead of courting moderate voters.

The second round between Cepeda and de la Espriella is scheduled for June 21. More than one million votes for centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo and 1.6 million for Paloma Valencia are up for grabs. While Valencia endorsed de la Espriella, her running mate, moderate politician Juan Daniel Oviedo, did not. “As the saying goes, whoever makes fewer mistakes will be the winner,” said political strategist Miguel Jaramillo Lujan.