Israel Election: Arab and Ultra-Orthodox Parties Could Hold the Balance of Power

In the final stretch before Israel's October 27 election, parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties have become the focal point of political debate. Though frequently attacked, these parties are forecast to hold the role of "kingmaker" — deciding who forms the next government.

According to polls, the two parties representing roughly 20 percent of the population who are Palestinian citizens of Israel — Ra'am and the Joint List — are expected to win 13 seats combined. If that result is confirmed, Arab-led parties could play a decisive role in any post-election coalition, regardless of its political orientation.

There is precedent. In 2021, Ra'am became the first Arab party to join an Israeli government when it entered the broad coalition that ousted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu had earlier signaled willingness to negotiate with Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas, but Abbas ultimately partnered with the coalition of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

This time, both Netanyahu's camp and most leaders of the self-described "Zionist" opposition rule out forming a government with parties representing Palestinian citizens. Yet Netanyahu and his allies still accuse their rivals of depending on Arab parties, while the opposition criticizes them for relying on ultra-Orthodox parties to stay in power.

Polls consistently show Netanyahu's Likud and the far-right alliance he leads running neck and neck with the Zionist opposition bloc, with neither side likely to win an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

"Netanyahu will work with Ra'am immediately if it helps him stay in power," said Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at Chatham House. He also argued the opposition "seems not to understand the consequences of their actions" as they repeatedly seek to undermine the credibility of a party that could be a pillar of a future government.

During the campaign, Likud has repeatedly run attack ads warning that if Netanyahu is removed from the premiership, Arab parties will become "kingmakers" in a government potentially led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party. One Likud campaign slogan reads: "No Gadi without [Ahmad] Tibi," referring to the leader of Ta'al, one of three parties in the Joint List.

The Joint List, which includes Hadash and Balad, says it can provide a "safety net" for an anti-Netanyahu coalition by abstaining on no-confidence votes, even without joining the government. In return, it has set conditions including progress toward a Palestinian state and action against organized crime.

Ra'am has also focused on combating the wave of violent crime engulfing Palestinian communities, as well as government discrimination, including in housing. Founded in 1996, the party has gradually distanced itself from its religious conservative platform. In December 2025, Abbas announced that the party's political planning body would separate from its religious council. Eight months later, the party selected its own election list for the first time and placed Zionist Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, a former senior police commander, in the second slot.

Mekelberg described Ra'am as "one of the most interesting parties" of this year's election: "Through Mansour Abbas, they keep reinventing themselves without appearing opportunistic."

This election is the first since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, which killed about 1,200 people and sparked Israel's war in Gaza. The war has accelerated a shift to the right, with Arab-led parties increasingly targeted by right-wing figures seeking to brand them as complicit in the October 7 attack.

In May, Bennett apologized for having joined a government with Ra'am. In September, Netanyahu's Likud and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party filed a petition to ban Ra'am and the Joint List from running. On September 23, the Central Elections Committee, whose members come from parties in the Knesset, voted to disqualify both lists along with two individual candidates.

However, on October 2 the Supreme Court unanimously overturned the disqualification of the Joint List and Ra'am, and reversed the exclusion of candidate Ofer Cassif by a 7-2 vote. Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew a day earlier after it became clear the court was likely to uphold his disqualification.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Cassif called it "a political decision rather than a judicial one," rooted in "the fear that they will need us."

Orly Noy, a Balad candidate and the first Jewish politician to enter the top five of the party's list, said it is "almost certain" the list will not join the next government. "That depends on whether the other parties want to prioritize voters' aspirations or their racism. However, even if excluded, we can still win concessions from any coalition in exchange for our support," she said.

Beyond the Arab parties, ultra-Orthodox parties have also been affected by October 7. Longtime partners in Likud-led coalitions, they are accused by many rivals of dodging military service and enjoying generous state welfare packages. The ultra-Orthodox community is mainly represented by two parties: Shas (Jews of Spanish, North African and Middle Eastern origin) and United Torah Judaism, or UTJ (of Central and Eastern European origin). Each is polling at 7-8 seats.

Their main goals are not foreign policy or taxation but protecting ultra-Orthodox students from military service, securing benefits for large families, and defending state funding for schools and religious institutions.

Once seen as Netanyahu's most reliable allies, they fell out with Likud last year when the government failed to pass a military exemption law. UTJ left the coalition entirely, while Shas left the government but did not pull its 11 lawmakers from the parliamentary coalition. Shas later gave up its coalition committee roles, and both parties boycotted coalition bills.

Still, backing from the ultra-Orthodox parties comes at a political price. In January, opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the government of sending billions of dollars "to corrupt draft dodgers," while another potential prime ministerial candidate, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, likened Shas and UTJ to the Taliban for their lack of female representation.