US Midterms 2026: The Fight for Congress and Trump's Final Two Years

The US midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, are drawing attention at home and abroad. No presidential office is on the ballot, but the results will determine which party controls Congress and shape the policy direction of the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. The elections will also decide many key positions at the state and local level.

The battle for the House and Senate

Congress has two chambers: the House and the Senate. All 435 House seats are up on November 3 because House members serve only two-year terms. Most races, however, are considered settled, with clear front-runners. Only about 50 seats are genuinely competitive and will decide which party holds the House majority.

Most respected forecasters currently expect Democrats to have a good chance of taking control of the House, with some projections suggesting they could gain as many as 15 seats. Democrats' chances of winning a Senate majority are rated lower.

The Senate has 100 seats, but because senators serve six-year terms and are elected in staggered cycles, only 35 seats are up this cycle. Of those, only about a dozen races are considered competitive. Even so, Democratic prospects in the Senate are improving as the number of competitive races grows, with left-leaning candidates making gains in states that typically lean Republican, such as Texas and Kansas. Because the vice president can cast a tie-breaking vote, Democrats need 51 seats to control the Senate.

What does control of Congress mean?

Congress passes laws and approves the federal budget. But even if one party wins majorities in both chambers, that is not enough to fully dictate the country's legislative agenda.

Bills can pass the House by a simple majority, but usually need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome the filibuster, a procedural tool that lets a minority bloc delay legislation. So unless one party wins more than 60 Senate seats, most bills will still need at least some degree of bipartisan support.

Even if a bill passes both chambers, the president can still veto it. Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and the Senate, which rarely happens. The most recent case was in January 2021, when then-President Trump tried and failed to veto a defense spending bill. Still, there are cases where bipartisan support has overcome presidential opposition. Earlier this year, a bill to boost housing supply passed both chambers with margins sufficient to override a veto, despite Trump's opposition.

Scenario: Republicans keep control of Congress

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats and 218 House seats. With Trump in the White House, the party has controlled all three branches of government for the past two years.

Its congressional majorities have helped Trump enact several major laws, including a sharp increase in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and cuts to some forms of publicly funded health care in the 2025 tax bill. But those majorities have not been enough to pass his entire legislative agenda; notably, the SAVE America Act, which would require photo ID to vote, has not passed because of Democratic opposition.

There are also issues on which Republicans have defied Trump, especially on tariffs. Some Republican lawmakers have also voted to assert Congress's authority over the US-Israel war with Iran.

If Republicans hold both chambers, their majorities could continue to support Trump's legislative agenda. But there is an important caveat: lawmakers will be watching voter sentiment closely as the 2028 election approaches. Because Trump cannot run for a third term, some Republicans may be willing to publicly break with the lame-duck president over the next two years to improve their own re-election chances.

If Republicans keep the Senate but lose the House, they can still help Trump confirm nominees to key federal posts. Hundreds of federal positions require Senate confirmation by simple majority, including judicial posts, up to and including Supreme Court justices.

Scenario: Democrats take control

The party controlling Congress can, with a few exceptions, decide which bills come to a vote and when. But for Democrats, the most important consequence of winning a majority in one or both chambers is the ability to block Trump's agenda over the next two years.

Analysts say a Democratic-led Congress would most likely play defense, rejecting Trump's proposals. Going on the offensive and passing their own legislative agenda would be far harder, even with majorities in both chambers, because Democratic bills would still face a presidential veto.

A majority would, however, let Democratic lawmakers embed policy priorities in must-pass budget bills. The threat of a government shutdown could pressure Republicans to approve spending bills even if they disagree with some provisions. Democrats could also force votes designed to make Republicans oppose popular policies or go on the record on divisive issues.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has unveiled a 100-day plan if Democrats win the chamber. Top priorities include votes on Trump-backed cuts to health care funding, asserting Congress's authority over the US-Israel war with Iran, and reining in Trump's tariff program. These issues have divided Republicans and would create dilemmas for lawmakers preparing for the 2028 vote.

Will Democrats impeach Trump?

On the campaign trail for Republicans ahead of the November vote, Trump has repeatedly voiced concern that Democratic control of Congress could lead to a third impeachment. Trump was impeached twice during his first term. "If we don't win, they're going to impeach me," he said at a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October.

If Democrats control the House or the Senate, they will take over the leadership of dozens of committees. Through those committees, they can launch investigations with subpoena power into a range of topics. Some Democratic lawmakers have said investigating corruption allegations involving Trump's family would be a top priority.

House members can also file articles of impeachment and ultimately vote to impeach federal officials, including the president, by simple majority. The Senate, however, would need a two-thirds majority to convict before the official is removed. More significantly, if Democrats control the Senate, they could block confirmation of Trump's nominees to key posts during the final two years of his term.

What would change on the Iran war and the economy?

A Democratic wave would likely reflect dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, but it would not bring rapid, dramatic change on many of the issues that shaped the campaign.

For example, if Democrats win both chambers, they could use their leverage to address affordability, focusing on housing, health care and the cost of living. But they would struggle to quickly change many of the factors driving up gasoline and food prices. Any gains would likely be hard-fought, slow and incremental.

The same is true of the US-Israel war with Iran. Under the US Constitution, only Congress can declare war, something it has not done since World War II. Presidents have long used various legal arguments to sidestep that constitutional requirement. Most recently, the Trump administration has argued that the US-Israel war with Iran does not need congressional authorization because the president has a duty to protect Americans. Trump has also argued that the war has started and stopped repeatedly, with each extension giving Congress 60 more days to authorize it.

To reassert Congress's war powers, Democrats could pass a legally binding war powers resolution to constrain Trump, but they would need two-thirds support to overcome a presidential veto. Even if such a resolution survived a veto, experts say it is unclear how the US judiciary would respond if Trump defied Congress's will. Democrats could still use control of Congress to try to cut off funding for the war.