Brazil Election: Flavio Bolsonaro Beats Forecasts, Lula Heads to Runoff

Brazil's closely watched presidential election will go to a runoff between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, extending a deeply polarized race with major implications for Brazil and the region.

Brazil's electoral court confirmed on Sunday that the two candidates will advance to the October 25 vote after neither secured the majority needed to win outright in the first round. Bolsonaro led with 55.8 million votes to Lula's nearly 53.2 million.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term after a political career spanning nearly five decades. Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and is trying to return his father's right-wing movement to power while the former president serves a 27-year prison sentence for a coup plot after losing the 2022 election.

The election comes at a pivotal moment for Latin America's largest economy. Brazilians are worried about crime and the cost of living, while the country faces increasingly tense relations with the United States. The vote is also being closely watched across a region that has shifted sharply to the right in a string of recent elections.

Although a runoff had been widely predicted, the first-round result did not play out as the polls forecast.

Brazil heads toward another Lula-Bolsonaro showdown

With nearly 99 percent of votes counted, Bolsonaro took about 47 percent of valid votes, compared with 44.9 percent for Lula. Neither reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright.

That sets up another Lula-Bolsonaro matchup, four years after Lula narrowly defeated former President Jair Bolsonaro. This time, he will face the former president's eldest son.

The race could be extremely tight, with pre-vote polls showing Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro nearly level in a potential runoff.

That puts voters who backed one of the 10 other first-round candidates at the center of the presidential contest over the next three weeks. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who each won about 5.3 million votes, have said they will not endorse anyone in the runoff.

Flavio Bolsonaro outperforms forecasts

Most pre-election polls predicted the race would go to a runoff but suggested Lula would finish the first round ahead of Bolsonaro. Instead, Bolsonaro pulled ahead by two percentage points, raising questions about why the final polls underestimated his support.

On Sunday, Bolsonaro said the result showed Brazilians want change.

Analysts told Reuters that Bolsonaro may have benefited from "protest votes" from people who might prefer another candidate but see defeating Lula as the priority. Many were expected to shift their support to Bolsonaro only in the runoff, meaning that could affect his level of support over the next three weeks.

"The protest vote foreshadows what is to come in the runoff," political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters. "Although this currently benefits Flavio Bolsonaro, his growth potential in the runoff is reduced precisely because that support has already been concentrated."

After the results, Lula said the vote count was "surprising" but that he would come back stronger in the runoff. "I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round. The match is about to begin. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people," the 80-year-old Lula said.

The right also scores big in Congress

Bolsonaro's unexpected first-round performance was part of a broader show of strength by Brazil's right.

Right-wing parties, led by Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL), are performing strongly in both chambers of Congress, with the PL on track to become the largest force in the lower house and to gain seats in the Senate.

That includes wins by other members of the Bolsonaro family, among them former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Flavio's stepmother, who won a Senate seat in the Federal District, her first elected office. His brother, Carlos Bolsonaro, was elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina.

The results show that the political movement built around former President Jair Bolsonaro -- known as "bolsonarista" -- remains a powerful electoral force even after the former president was barred from running.

"The fact that far-right candidates for the legislature exceeded all expectations shows a broader popular base for the bolsonarista project than many thought," Andre Pagliarini, an associate professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and author of a book on Lula, told Al Jazeera. "Millions of Brazilians evidently feel that the right best reflects their values and their vision for the future," he added.

The congressional results also matter beyond election night. Both chambers were already dominated by conservative lawmakers, and a stronger right-wing presence could make it even harder for Lula to push his agenda if he is re-elected. A Bolsonaro victory, meanwhile, could give him more room to pursue his priorities, including a pledge to seek a pardon for his father.