Brazil Election: Flavio Bolsonaro Leads Lula, Forcing Runoff

Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed expectations in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, taking 47% of the vote against 45.1% for incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The result forces the two candidates into a runoff expected on October 25, after neither reached the 50% threshold needed to win outright in the first round.

Speaking to reporters in Brasilia, Bolsonaro said: "Brazil wants change, and I am very pleased with this result," while declaring an end to "the era of Lula's Workers' Party (PT)."

The 45-year-old senator is the son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for a coup plot after losing the 2022 election. He will face Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.

Ahead of Sunday's vote, opinion polls showed a tight race between Lula and Bolsonaro, with forecasts projecting the incumbent would win by about 3 percentage points. The actual result, however, showed Bolsonaro ahead — an unexpected turn compared with the predictions.

Why Bolsonaro is seen as having the edge

Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected showing could add momentum to his campaign and bolster Brazilian financial markets, which had already gained on the prospect of a business-friendly candidate.

Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in São Paulo, said Lula is in a difficult position because he cannot count on the votes of those who backed the 10 other candidates. "Not only is he trailing after the first round, but the remaining candidates, with nearly 8% of the vote combined, are mostly center-right, meaning those voters are very unlikely to swing to Lula," Stuenkel told Al Jazeera.

He argued that Lula needs to change his campaign tactics and, in particular, mobilize a significant share of non-voters. About 30 million Brazilians, or 21% of the electorate, did not cast a ballot in the first round.

Al Jazeera correspondent Monica Yanakiew, reporting from Rio de Janeiro, said Lula supporters feel their candidate has not used social media as effectively as the right. "This is something they have to fix in the second round," Yanakiew said.

From a historical standpoint, however, Stuenkel said such efforts are unlikely to change the dynamic: "Unless something very unusual happens in the next three weeks, Flavio Bolsonaro is forecast to win. In the history of Brazilian presidential elections, no candidate who finished second in the first round has gone on to win the presidency since 1989."

Bolsonaro family consolidates influence

Several politicians from the Bolsonaro family won races in the congressional elections held alongside the general vote.

Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of former President Jair Bolsonaro and Flavio's stepmother, won a Senate seat for the Federal District, home to the capital, Brasilia. In June, she had publicly feuded with her stepson in social media videos, accusing him of disrespect, before the two reconciled.

Carlos Bolsonaro, 43, the former president's second son, was the second-highest vote-getter in the Senate race in the southern state of Santa Catarina and won a Senate seat. The youngest son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, was elected to the Chamber of Deputies.

Some experts say the "antipetismo" movement — hostility toward Lula's PT — has driven the Bolsonaro family's political rise.

Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while Lula's PT took 70.

What a Bolsonaro win would mean

Brazil's presidential election carries significant regional geopolitical weight. Al Jazeera correspondent Lucia Newman, reporting from São Paulo, said Lula is "squaring off" against U.S. President Donald Trump, who has openly backed the Bolsonaro camp. "That places Brazil at the center of the intense competition between Washington and Beijing for political, diplomatic and economic influence, especially since Brazil is a major power in all these areas," Newman said.

While Bolsonarismo is closely tied to the United States and Israel, Brazil also has deep economic ties with China, its largest trading partner. Bolsonaro views Trump as an ally and is expected to deepen relations with Washington if elected.

If he wins, Bolsonaro has pledged to seek a congressional pardon for his father, who is serving time for his role in the coup plot after losing to Lula by 1.8 percentage points in 2022. That would require approval from both chambers of Congress, currently dominated by conservatives.

Like Trump, the Bolsonaro family has made claims of election fraud. The riots that shook Brasilia in January 2023 bore many similarities to the storming of the U.S. Capitol two years earlier. Bolsonaro has also pledged to free his father's supporters jailed over the coup plot.

Concerns about U.S. interference in Brazil's internal affairs have also hung over the campaign. Lula has accused the Trump administration of using tariffs and other measures to meddle in Brazil's affairs.

Vinicius de Carvalho, a professor of Brazilian studies at King's College London, stressed that Latin America is experiencing a right-wing wave, with U.S.-friendly governments taking power in Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama and Paraguay. Lula, by contrast, was part of the leftist "pink tide" that emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s. If re-elected, with an opposition Congress, Lula would still have to "meet some of the right's demands," according to de Carvalho.