Rising Violence in Northern Mozambique Worsens Displacement Crisis

The Mozambican government has launched a two-day forum to discuss the future of internally displaced persons as a brutal armed conflict in the northern Cabo Delgado region enters its ninth year.

Since 2017, this resource-rich area has been plagued by an ISIL-affiliated armed group known locally as al-Shabab, though it has no connection to the Somali militant group of the same name. A significant military deployment to affected areas has so far failed to dislodge the group.

Fresh attacks since August last year have sharply increased displacement and humanitarian needs.

The latest wave of violence has, for the first time, affected all 17 districts of Cabo Delgado. Some communities that previously hosted displaced people are now also fleeing for safety, while many others are being displaced multiple times.

More than 1.3 million people have been driven from their homes throughout the conflict, with 100,000 displaced in late 2025 alone, according to the United Nations.

With no viable military solution in sight, some are calling for negotiations.

Developments in Cabo Delgado this year

Fresh clashes between Mozambican troops and forces allied with al-Shabab, or the Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP), since late 2025 have worsened the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe.

Between January and July, at least 28,163 people were displaced; 65 percent of them were women and children.

Clashes have been reported around the strategic town of Mocimboa de Praia and its surroundings. Armed activity has also been reported in towns once considered safe, such as Mueda, formerly a hub for displaced people and aid agencies.

Amid a wave of US-led global aid cuts, some aid organizations have left the north or scaled back operations. The UN says the humanitarian response is currently reaching 619,000 of the 1.1 million people recently targeted due to funding shortfalls.

About 1.8 million people need assistance, including one million children, according to UNICEF.

Some 6,000 people are believed to have been killed since 2017.

However, in recent months, the number of people on the move has decreased despite the violence, Hannah Danziger da Silva, country representative for the aid group We World, told Al Jazeera.

“I think people are just tired,” she said. “They just run into the bush when attacked and then come back. People do not want to have to leave their crops and homes again.”

Northern Mozambique is also facing more intense floods and tropical cyclones, making the crisis multi-faceted. Cyclone Chido, in late 2024, displaced nearly 100,000 people.

What is ISMP and what does it want?

ISMP, with roughly 300–500 members, is a relatively small group compared with other ISIL affiliates in Africa. But it is one of the most dangerous.

Peter Bofin of ACLED, a conflict monitor, told Al Jazeera the group has survived by protecting illicit financial networks and maintaining strong local support networks.

ISMP was initially led by Abu Yasir Hassan “Abu Qasim,” a Tanzanian, but he is believed to be dead. According to research sources, the de facto leader is now another Tanzanian known as “Farido.”

The group emerged in northern Mozambique in the early 2010s. At the time, several groups had formed in the predominantly Muslim north, where many historically felt abandoned by the government in Maputo. The region, despite being rich in rubies, gold, marine life, and gas, is Mozambique's poorest. Droughts and cyclones are also reducing agricultural output and deepening poverty.

Grievances over the equitable distribution of wealth grew when gas was discovered in the region in 2010, and as international companies such as Anadarko (later acquired by Total) moved in.

In 2017, about 30 al-Shabab gunmen carried out a series of bloody attacks on police posts and civilians in the port town of Mocimboa de Praia, sparking the armed insurgency. Around the same time, Tanzania cracked down on separatist figures, forcing them to flee across the border.

The gunmen told villagers they carried out attacks because they rejected state institutions and Western education, and sought to establish a religious state.

Sporadic attacks continued until 2019, with 464 civilians killed from 2017 to 2019, when the group was officially recognized by ISIL. Their signature style was especially brutal: gunmen beheaded and dismembered civilians on football fields, or shot them at close range and burned their homes.

Attacks peaked in 2020 when ISMP captured the town of Mocimboa de Praia, driving out government forces. They also came closer to the site of Total's multi-billion-dollar liquefied natural gas project. From 2017 to 2020, at least 2,000 civilians were killed.

How has the government responded?

Mozambican forces tried alone to quell the armed uprising but were unsuccessful in the early days.

“The Mozambican military is quite small,” Bofin noted. “They are not particularly well trained or equipped.”

Security forces have also been accused of corruption. President Daniel Chapo said last year that some members “sold out the homeland” by revealing details of security operations.

In January 2021, Total evacuated staff after attacks on villages near the project site. Then, in March, they suspended the gas project after gunmen attacked and destroyed the town of Palma, just 10 km (6.2 miles) away.

Maputo then stepped up efforts to contain the uprising. By July, Mozambique had signed an agreement with Rwanda to deploy about 1,000 battle-hardened Rwandan Defence Force troops to the area to protect the gas project. A 2,200-strong force from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) was also deployed.

Mozambican and allied forces launched major offensives against ISMP, recapturing territory and pushing the gunmen back to their jungle bases. By late 2021, some ISMP fighters had deserted the group amid reports of severe supply shortages.

Why has fighting resumed?

Although ISMP never completely stopped its attacks, the group appears to have regrouped and rearmed since late 2021.

“They are quite adaptive,” Bofin said. “They can change the situation quickly while maintaining cohesion in the leadership structure.”

The group has since sought to expand revenue streams. They began kidnapping people, forcing families to send money via mobile networks. They also taxed illegal gold mining in the area, and engaged in mining activities themselves. Bofin said this move toward domestic financing came as US-backed Somalia intensified strikes on IS-Somalia, where ISMP's funding used to flow from.

ISMP has also forcibly recruited fighters.

About 5,000 RDF troops remain stationed in the north, but mostly around the LNG project area. They have been less aggressive in other areas than they were in the early days, Bofin pointed out.

Meanwhile, the 2,200 SADC soldiers left Mozambique in 2024. There has been speculation about poor intelligence sharing and other disagreements with the Mozambican military. Analysts point out that the SADC withdrawal allowed ISMP to regain influence in some towns such as Macomia and Quissanga.

What is next?

With the conflict nearly a decade old, President Chapo appears keen to try a path his predecessors avoided: negotiations.

This move aligns with the combined military and diplomatic tactics that Mozambican intellectuals have called for. However, the president, in an interview with Al Jazeera, hinted at challenges in pinpointing exactly who to talk to.

“We will continue to work (fighting on the front), while at the same time we try to identify the leaders and their motivations, to see if through this path we can continue to work,” he said.

It is not unusual for local governments to make deals with ideologically driven armed groups, as seen in conflict-affected countries like Burkina Faso.

There is no evidence that state-level negotiations have succeeded with any such group.

Some say dialogue should also involve northern communities: their historical grievances need to be heard, and poverty needs to be addressed.

Meanwhile, Bofin noted, ISMP is trying to rebrand itself and use a less aggressive approach in local communities where it holds influence.

However, the group is facing stronger resistance from the Mozambican military, which appears to be on the offensive.

In August, ACLED recorded four clashes between ISMP and Mozambican forces, and all, Bofin said, were initiated by government troops.