Andy Burnham's First Three Months as UK Prime Minister: Can the 'Hope Effect' Last?

London, England – The most striking moment in Prime Minister Andy Burnham's speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool was a silence. The party's new leader stood motionless for about 20 seconds, saying nothing, before continuing his remarks about his father, who had died just weeks earlier. The hall rose to applaud, shouted encouragement, and he regained his composure and carried on.

Conference speeches are inherently theatrical, and the current standard in British politics demands that leaders appear close to the public. Burnham's moment was widely seen as genuine. His predecessor, Keir Starmer, was sometimes regarded as stiff, almost robotic on camera; Burnham, Britain's seventh prime minister in 10 years, is seen as more emotional, fond of big ideas and attentive to communication.

In modern politics, that matters. Polls show Labour returned to the lead immediately after Burnham took office and has held it since. In late September, Ipsos identified Andy Burnham as the only politician with a positive net approval rating; a YouGov survey also rated him the most popular politician in Britain today.

Yet to sustain that standing, Burnham must deliver visible change before the general election expected in 2029, unless he calls an early vote. Political analyst Sam Freedman said many in Westminster keep returning to the question of an early election even though Burnham has ruled it out, and no one has a clear picture of how he can maintain the "hope effect" over the next three years when progress on change remains relatively limited.

A return to the Labour image of the 1950s

In the Welsh town of Port Talbot, rows of workers' housing sit beside Britain's largest steel plant. Like most of Wales, Port Talbot voted Labour for a century, until the Welsh Parliament election in May. Labour was then pushed into an unprecedented third place, behind Plaid Cymru and the anti-immigration Reform UK – before Burnham took over.

Myles Lewis, who organizes community walking activities for older people in the town, told Al Jazeera that Labour had not convinced people on immigration and that Starmer's communication had not been good enough. "Now it's almost back to the image of the Labour Party of the 50s and 60s, when it really looked after working people. I believe Andy Burnham can do that because I think he puts working people's interests first."

In his first weeks in office, Burnham rolled out a series of attention-grabbing domestic policies focused on the cost of living: a cap on bus fares, a cut in value-added tax on electricity bills and business rate relief for pubs. He pledged to end street homelessness, reindustrialize the country, bring services back under public control and launch the largest social housing program since the Second World War.

As mayor of Greater Manchester for nine years, Burnham championed devolving power from Westminster to the UK's regions and constituent nations. In July, he announced that mayors could retain a share of business rates from April 2027 and a share of income tax from 2028.

His September conference speech sketched the outlines of the big political battles ahead, including a proposal for free national social care at the point of use, funded by changing the pensions "triple lock" from 2030 and to be rolled out in the next parliamentary term. Burnham also proposed a national commission on electoral reform, with a manifesto commitment to overhaul the voting system. He offered a blunt assessment of Brexit: leaving the EU "has done more harm than good," and he did not rule out including a referendum on staying in or leaving the EU in the next election manifesto, or a pledge to take Britain back into the European Union.

On foreign policy, the gap between Burnham and his predecessors is small. On a trip to Ukraine in August, he brought a notable "gift": Britain's know-how for building SCALP long-range missiles. He is the fourth British prime minister to visit Kyiv since Russia launched its full-scale military campaign in Ukraine and has pledged firm support.

On Gaza, he said the Labour government "got it wrong" and should have called for a ceasefire sooner. In September, Burnham's government announced a sanctions package targeting illegal settlements in the West Bank. Still, there has been no declaration of genocide and no full arms embargo on Israel; Burnham has also not reversed the Starmer government's decision to designate Palestine Action as a "terrorist" organization.

Defense spending is also an emerging issue. The government's formal commitment is to spend 3.5% of GDP on defense by 2035, and Burnham has not said clearly whether he would pay for it through tax rises or welfare cuts. John Healey, who resigned as defense secretary in June over a lack of funding, is now finance minister and has not committed to the 3% of GDP target by 2030 that he himself once set.

Burnham's first budget will be announced later this month, followed by a comprehensive spending review next year. After that, much will become clearer. His biggest commitments – reindustrialization, public control of services, a new social care system – are all expensive. Burnham currently enjoys a supportive "effect," and the public is embracing it. The budget will show whether he can afford to pay for those promises.