The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) warned on June 2 that the El Niño weather phenomenon has formed in the tropical Pacific and could strengthen in the second half of the year, becoming one of the strongest in 70 years.
In a statement, BoM said sea surface temperatures in the region have exceeded the El Niño threshold, and atmospheric indicators also show the phenomenon has begun. “Forecasts indicate a strong to very strong El Niño, based on the level of warming in the central tropical Pacific. About half of the models suggest this event could peak at the highest level recorded since 1950,” BoM said.
Forecasters expect El Niño to bring heavy rains to the Americas and hot, dry weather to Asia, where planting is already under strain, raising concerns about food supplies.
According to BoM, El Niño is associated with reduced rainfall in winter and spring, particularly affecting Australia's east coast, and leading to higher daytime temperatures in the south. The phenomenon is especially damaging for Australia because it affects agricultural production — the country is one of the world's largest exporters of wheat, sugar, and beef.
BoM added that climate change will worsen the impacts of this year's El Niño. The most recent El Niño in Australia ran from 2023 to 2024, causing the three driest months on record. Previously, one of the strongest events, in 2015-2016, led to widespread drought and reduced oil and grain output.
According to the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is characterized by warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting about 9–12 months.
In a report on June 2, the WMO said there is an “80% chance of El Niño occurring in the June–August 2026 period” and “the probability of the phenomenon continuing through at least November is near or above 90%.” The WMO stressed that El Niño will affect global temperatures and rainfall, increasing the risk of extreme weather.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned the world must treat this as “an urgent climate warning.” “The only effective response is climate action commensurate with the crisis — ending fossil fuel addiction, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, protecting the most vulnerable, and deploying early warning systems for everyone,” he said.
