India and Pakistan quietly preparing to resume dialogue?

Earlier this month, as Indian television channels and government leaders were celebrating the anniversary of the war against Pakistan in May 2025, a key ideologue in the political movement led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi unexpectedly struck a different note.

In an interview with an Indian news agency, Dattatreya Hosabale, general secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) – the core organization of the Hindutva ideology that dominates Modi's BJP party – suggested New Delhi should seek dialogue with Pakistan. “We should not close the door. We are always ready to engage in dialogue,” he said.

The remark immediately stirred political waves in India, with the opposition questioning the RSS's stance and pointing out a clear divergence from Modi's own views. His government has repeatedly asserted that “terrorism and talks cannot go together,” opposing dialogue with Pakistan – a country India accuses of funding and arming groups that have attacked Kashmir and Indian cities for decades.

Pakistan welcomed Hosabale's comment. Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said Islamabad would wait to see if there was any “official reaction” from India. More than a week later, the Indian government has yet to respond officially, but several other prominent voices in the country have backed the RSS leader, fueling speculation that New Delhi may be preparing to resume formal ties with Pakistan.

Analysts note that while there is a basis for the two countries to re-engage diplomatically, and they have quietly taken initial steps, restoring full dialogue will not be easy.

Voices from the sidelines – or a test of public opinion?

The call for dialogue did not stop with Hosabale. Former Indian Army Chief General Manoj Naravane publicly supported the view. He told an Indian news agency that “ordinary people have nothing to do with politics” and that natural friendship between peoples would help improve relations between nations. On the Pakistani side, Andrabi expressed hope that “sanity will prevail in India and the belligerent mindset will fade.”

Although the RSS does not directly run the government, most senior BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Modi, have served years in the organization. Therefore, Professor Irfan Nooruddin, an expert on Indian politics at Georgetown University, believes that the negotiation signals from the RSS and retired generals like Naravane are intentional.

“The Modi government has painted itself into a corner with anti-Pakistan rhetoric. De-escalating and starting dialogue could be politically damaging. So it is beneficial for the BJP to have the proposal come from the RSS and former military leaders, as they can justify it as a response to societal voices, not a political concession,” Nooruddin said.

Beneath the surface

According to analysts, the call for dialogue did not come in a vacuum. Former Pakistani diplomat Jauhar Saleem revealed that since the May 2025 war (which ended with a ceasefire mediated by US President Donald Trump), there have been about four meetings between former officials, retired generals, intelligence figures, and lawmakers from both sides. These Track 2 and Track 1.5 meetings (involving some serving officials) took place in Muscat, Doha, Thailand, and London.

“I believe these meetings help promote informal dialogue, aimed at preventing major misunderstandings, gauging the situation, and possibly paving the way for formal contacts that have been almost non-existent in recent years,” Saleem said.

Retired Major General Tariq Rashid Khan, former Pakistani ambassador to Brunei, described these dialogues as essential infrastructure, “not a substitute for formal diplomacy, but a safety valve.” When asked directly about the contacts, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry declined to comment. “If I comment, there will be no back channel anymore,” spokesman Andrabi said.

Shifting balance

These secret contacts take place against a backdrop of significant geopolitical change. Pakistan's international standing has improved markedly. General Asim Munir, who commanded Pakistan's army in the 2025 war, directly mediated a ceasefire between the US and Iran in April 2026. The Islamabad talks in April 2026 were the first direct high-level interaction between the US and Iran since 1979. President Trump has repeatedly publicly praised Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Meanwhile, India-US relations are strained over tariffs and immigration restrictions, narrowing the space for New Delhi to rely on Washington to pressure Pakistan. Professor Nooruddin observed: “The geopolitical landscape has turned upside down. India has fallen from a favored position with the US to the sidelines, while Pakistan has skillfully regained US favor. India could ignore Pakistan when building a special relationship with the US, but now it cannot.”

However, Khan warned against overestimating the signals: “Signals in silence reflect realism more than sudden rapprochement.”

Deep divisions

Khan's skepticism is reinforced by events of the past week. On May 16, Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi stated that if Islamabad continues to “harbor terrorism and act against India,” they will have to decide whether to “be part of geography or history.” Within 24 hours, the Pakistani military reacted fiercely through the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), calling the statement “arrogant, belligerent, and shortsighted,” and warning that threatening to erase a nuclear-armed country “is not a strategic signal but a bankruptcy of cognitive capacity.”

Additionally, a ruling from The Hague Court of Arbitration on May 15 regarding reservoir limits on Indian hydropower projects in the Indus river system further illustrates the state of relations. Pakistan welcomed the ruling, while India completely rejected it, arguing the court was “illegally constituted.” The Indus Waters Treaty, a cornerstone of water sharing, remains suspended by India since the Pahalgam attack.

The exchange between General Dwivedi and ISPR is seen as the clearest public signal of the current state of relations. “A debate is underway within Indian strategic circles about the level of engagement with Pakistan, where some see value in moving toward formal dialogue. But the political will for that remains unclear,” Saleem concluded.