India, Turkey and Egypt Join US in Proposing Partial Ceasefires for Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine says it has received proposals from India, Turkey, Egypt and the United States to mediate talks with Russia. The proposals come as both sides step up strikes on each other's energy and port infrastructure, with the war now in its fifth year.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced the four proposals at a press conference in Kyiv on Friday, singling out the Indian plan. "The most comprehensive proposal is India's," he said, adding that New Delhi had for the first time signaled a willingness to play a role.

None of the proposals is aimed at ending the war. Each points to a narrower ceasefire covering energy facilities, ports or commercial shipping in the Black Sea.

What is India proposing?

India has not published its plan. However, citing anonymous sources, Indian media report it has three parts. According to the Hindustan Times, the proposal seeks to protect infrastructure, keep grain and energy flowing through Black Sea ports, and ensure the safety of commercial shipping.

The first part — both sides halting strikes on energy facilities and ports — overlaps with Kyiv's own demand. Sybiha said any deal must be a full energy ceasefire that includes port infrastructure.

The second part builds on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in 2022 but abandoned by Russia in 2023.

The third part — protecting merchant ships and crews — matters especially to India because Indian sailors have been killed or wounded on Black Sea shipping routes.

The sources cited said India's plan goes further than the other three because it covers both infrastructure and shipping. A Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that the proposal integrates elements of the Turkish, Egyptian and US initiatives. The Kyiv Post reported that Sybiha also described the plan as touching on the possibility of a ceasefire along the front line, though other sources said he gave no specifics.

The proposal may have taken shape during Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar's first visit to Ukraine last month and a subsequent meeting with Sybiha at the UN General Assembly in New York, also in September. Jaishankar said New Delhi is "trying to be helpful, beginning with the question of shipping safety in the Black Sea."

What is in the Turkish and Egyptian proposals?

Very little is known. Neither Ankara nor Cairo has published details. Both are said to focus on keeping Black Sea grain supplies moving by pausing strikes on commercial shipping. Some reports say the two countries proposed a joint grain ceasefire; others describe two separate plans.

Turkey has done this before. Together with the United Nations, it led the 2022 grain deal, one of the few narrow ceasefires of the war that held for any length of time. Ankara and the UN are now hosting fresh Black Sea talks, with a round expected in October.

Beyond the Black Sea focus, almost nothing is known about Egypt's proposal. Its interests, however, are clear: Egypt depends on Ukraine for nearly a third of its grain supply.

What is the US proposing?

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Washington proposes three steps: both sides halting energy strikes, reopening the grain corridor, and a trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia, possibly in Abu Dhabi.

The latest effort began in early September when envoys of US President Donald Trump visited Kyiv and Moscow and reached an agreement in principle on a trilateral meeting. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on September 5, while Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev visited the US twice in September.

The trilateral meeting was subsequently postponed. It had been expected in the United Arab Emirates in early October. Washington now wants to hold it in late October, and people close to the talks blame Russia for the delay.

Washington has also invited Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, Florida, in December. "We hope that's an invitation he will accept," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. The Kremlin said no decision has been made.

At the same time, the US is pressing for ways to end the war. Trump recently signed legislation giving him broad powers to sanction buyers of Russian energy.

He has also urged Ukraine to stop targeting Russian diesel facilities amid a diesel price crisis in the US, where Trump faces a difficult midterm election next month. "Zelenskyy has to do one thing," he said on September 13. "He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia." The remark drew criticism that Trump should have aimed his comments at Russia, which launched the war by invading Ukraine in February 2022.

He is said to be skeptical of his own administration's latest diplomatic initiative. People familiar with his thinking told US media he doubts whether Putin will agree to an energy ceasefire before winter.

How have Russia and Ukraine responded?

Sybiha said Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire, but with conditions. It accepts a truce on energy and Black Sea shipping, but only as a combined package, he said.

He added that Kyiv is also ready for an unconditional ceasefire along the current front line. Zelenskyy supports the US-proposed meeting but stressed that "not only Ukraine but also the Russian side" must back it.

Moscow's tone has been cordial but it has committed to nothing. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia welcomes India's peace efforts, while Putin said Modi has "very good ideas for finding a mutually acceptable solution," without elaborating.

Privately, Moscow appears to have said no. A Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent that Russia rejected India's proposal, though this has not been confirmed publicly. Ukraine's agriculture minister said Russia has rejected every Black Sea ceasefire option put forward by mediators.

Why are Global South countries getting more involved?

Food supplies, citizens' lives and fuel prices are all at risk.

"I think many countries see clearly that this is not a local war, but a war with global consequences," Fredrik Wesslau, a senior policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera.

Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat supplies, and strikes on each other's ports helped push wheat futures to a three-year high in August.

Sailors from countries not party to the war are dying. At least five Indian sailors have been killed in strikes on Black Sea shipping in recent months, along with seven Azerbaijani crew members since June. On Saturday, a Russian strike on a Liberia-flagged ship at a port in the Odesa region killed one crew member. Ukraine, for its part, has targeted tankers it says belong to Russia's shadow fleet since July.

The energy war is also hitting global markets. Ukraine has reported more than 194 drone strikes on Russian refineries this year, hitting all 11 of the largest facilities. Bloomberg News estimates Russia's fuel output has fallen by more than 30%. With Middle East supply already reduced by the US-Israel war with Iran, the global diesel market is more vulnerable to losing Russian supply.

Maximilian Hess, a senior non-resident fellow with the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said energy is at least as important as grain in driving diplomatic efforts. He pointed to "clear frustration" in many countries over high oil prices, reflecting both the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis.

"Of course Ukrainian grain matters to them, but the oil price factor matters too," he told Al Jazeera. "I think it's really commodity shock concerns that are pushing them to pick up this rhetoric, more than anything else."

What are the challenges ahead?

Every previous diplomatic effort has failed to end the Russia-Ukraine war. A 30-day energy ceasefire brokered by the US in early 2025 collapsed amid accusations of violations from both sides. At talks in Istanbul in May 2025, Zelenskyy complained that Russia had sent a low-level delegation without the authority to sign a ceasefire.

In August 2025, a meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska produced no result despite Trump's earlier claim that a deal was close.

Wesslau said Washington's efforts have stalled partly because Trump — who boasted he would end the war within 24 hours of taking office in January 2025 — appears unwilling to exert real pressure on Moscow. "The Russians see this, and they conclude that they can continue the war," he said.

Deep mistrust remains. Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, said: "Putin never keeps agreements."

Moscow's actions on the ground suggest it is in no hurry, according to Wesslau. "They are trying to strangle Ukraine, strangle the economy, and make it unlivable before winter," he said. He added that Moscow's occasionally softer tone is aimed mainly at the Trump administration and "always turns out to be just a con."

Russia's terms are another obstacle. Hess said Moscow's demands have not softened since it launched the war, and have at times grown. Putin demands all of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, including territory Russian forces have never controlled, plus a buffer zone in northern Ukraine. Moscow also seeks sanctions relief and military concessions in any Black Sea deal.

"I don't think the issue is who actually mediates. I think the real issue is the calculation in Moscow," Wesslau said. "Essentially, the problem is that Putin does not want a ceasefire or a peace deal. He wants to continue the war. He believes he can win."

Analysts say only greater economic pressure could change that calculation.

Wesslau said that if Europe can shut down Russia's shadow tanker fleet, "it would be a heavy blow to Russia's war economy." Hess said the country with the fastest ability to force change is China, not the US, by cutting its purchases of Russian oil. However, he added: "I don't think Beijing has any interest in doing so."

Hess said that absent an external shock, the war "is more likely to drag on for another four years than another four months."