India invests $11 billion to turn Great Nicobar Island into a strategic outpost in the Indian Ocean

Great Nicobar Island, India's southernmost point, is roughly the size of Hong Kong yet lies closer to the coasts of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia than to mainland India. Since 1984, no Indian prime minister has visited this island, home to an estimated fewer than 10,000 residents.

But the island is now at the center of an ambitious development project approved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with a total investment of $11 billion. The plan includes building a transshipment port, a civilian-military airport, a power plant, tourism infrastructure, and a city for 350,000 people.

India's government initially justified the project based on economic benefits from maritime trade. However, under pressure from environmental groups and the opposition, New Delhi shifted gears, emphasizing the project as the centerpiece of its strategic goals in the region.

Great Nicobar's geographic location is considered a key factor. The island sits near the western entrance of the Malacca Strait, a vital trade route through which one-third of the world's goods and oil pass. For China, this strait is especially critical, as Beijing relies on it for 80% of its crude oil imports and two-thirds of its trade.

"This island holds strategic value because it sits right at the gateway to the Malacca Strait," said Shekhar Sinha, a former Deputy Chief of the Indian Navy, in an interview with Al Jazeera. "If developed as a commercial hub, no one can oppose it."

The project has sparked strong opposition from indigenous communities. Great Nicobar is home to a few hundred Shompen people, a semi-nomadic hunter-gatherer tribe, as well as several thousand Nicobarese who depend on the coastal ecosystem. About half of the project area (166.1 square kilometers) overlaps with the Shompen's reserve area.

In February 2024, 39 experts on genocide wrote to Indian President Droupadi Murmu, warning the project would be a "death sentence for the Shompen." India's Environment Minister informed Parliament in 2023 that nearly 964,000 trees would be cut down, and 350,000 people would be relocated over three decades, representing a 4,000% population increase.

Activists warn the project will destroy the island's fragile ecosystem through massive deforestation, coastline alterations, and infrastructure construction in one of India's most biodiverse ecosystems. The island lies in seismic Zone 5, the highest risk level, making large-scale constructions particularly vulnerable.

Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, who visited the island last month, called it "one of the biggest scams and the most serious crimes against the natural heritage and tribal communities of this country in our lifetime."

Some analysts suggest that amid US-Iran tensions in the Hormuz Strait, New Delhi could — in a future conflict with China — leverage Great Nicobar's geography to pressure the Malacca Strait. However, former Vice Admiral Sinha dismissed this idea, noting that maritime blockades are easier said than done, and sustaining one is even harder. "Look at the US: if such a large naval force cannot completely blockade a narrow waterway, how can the Indian Navy blockade the vast Indian Ocean?"

Manish Chandi, a former member of the research advisory board at the government-run Andaman and Nicobar Tribal Training and Research Institute, called the project "very colonial." Chandi, who has spent over two decades studying the islands and their people, said: "The main goal of the project is to develop Great Nicobar into a commercial outpost. Opposition has forced the government to frame this initiative as tied to national security."