100 Days of US-Iran War: How Many Times Did a Deal Seem Within Reach?

On February 28, the US and Israel launched Operation 'Epic Fury' against Iran, initiating a protracted conflict. Iran retaliated with attacks on Israel and US military bases in the Gulf. After 100 days, the conflict shows no signs of ending, despite at least four moments when the parties seemed very close to a ceasefire agreement.

Fighting temporarily subsided after a temporary ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8. Direct talks in Islamabad collapsed on April 12, and since then the two sides have been exchanging peace proposals through Pakistan. However, subsequent flare-ups of fighting have raised fears of a full-scale war.

Direct Talks in Islamabad

Developments: On April 11-12, US and Iranian representatives met in Islamabad, Pakistan, for the first direct talks since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The US delegation was led by Vice President JD Vance, along with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the President's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Iranian side included Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Ali Bagheri Kani, the top nuclear negotiator.

Before the talks, Mr. Ghalibaf stated that Iran considered Israel's ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of frozen assets abroad as non-negotiable prerequisites. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif called this a 'decisive moment for lasting peace'.

Reasons for Failure: There were reports of a possible extension of talks for a third day, but the US delegation decided to end them. After 21 hours of negotiations, Vice President Vance said the discussions were substantive but no agreement was reached. He stated that the US was flexible but Tehran rejected the 'last and best offer'.

The sticking point was the nuclear program: the US wanted Iran to commit to permanently abandoning nuclear weapons and to hand over 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% – a level experts say is just short of weapons-grade (90%). Iran insists its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes and rejected the demand to hand over uranium. Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, commented: 'Even if there is 95% agreement, the hardest 5% remains a barrier'.

Consequences: Just four days after the talks collapsed, the US announced a naval blockade of all Iranian ports, a serious escalation.

Lebanon Ceasefire

Developments: On April 16, President Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had reached a 10-day ceasefire, opening the way for long-term peace negotiations. This came after six weeks of fierce fighting between Israel and Hezbollah – a close ally of Iran. Tehran repeatedly considered ending the conflict in Lebanon a prerequisite for any peace plan. Since March 2, more than 3,000 people have died and over a million have been displaced in Lebanon.

Reasons for Failure: Israel continued airstrikes on Lebanon despite the 'ceasefire'. The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) estimated that nearly 600 people were killed in the month after the ceasefire was announced. Iran considered peace in Lebanon a non-negotiable 'red line'.

Iran Eases Restrictions in Hormuz

Developments: On April 17, Foreign Minister Araghchi announced on X that 'in accordance with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared fully clear' for the remainder of the ceasefire. President Trump confirmed the strait was 'fully open for business'.

The Strait of Hormuz was a major sticking point in negotiations. Since early March, Iran had restricted ship traffic through the strait – which before the war carried 20% of global oil and gas. Iran proposed a transit fee, but the US rejected it.

Reasons for Failure: Despite Araghchi's announcement, President Trump ordered the naval blockade of Iranian ports to continue until an agreement was reached. Iran responded by firing on or detaining foreign-flagged vessels attempting to cross the strait.

Mr. Rafati noted: 'Unlike previous rounds of talks focused on the nuclear issue, the war has pushed Hormuz to the forefront. Iran wants to maintain influence over the strait, while the US wants a return to the pre-war state where freedom of navigation was not threatened.'

Trump Angry with Netanyahu

Developments: On June 1, according to Axios citing unnamed sources, President Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Israel's escalation in southern Lebanon. The previous day, Israel seized the strategic Beaufort Castle. Officials said Trump berated Netanyahu as 'crazy' and ungrateful.

The call came after Iran threatened to abandon talks due to Israel's ongoing attacks on Lebanon, raising hopes that Trump might threaten to withdraw military support to force a ceasefire.

Reasons for Failure: Although an anonymous Israeli source said Israel planned to stop attacks on Lebanon, airstrikes continued. On June 5, Israel struck the Naqoura area despite a conditional ceasefire mediated by the US. The Israeli military also ordered forced evacuations of three villages in southern Lebanon.