Lebanese pack bags and stock up amid fears of new Israeli escalation

Beirut, Lebanon – During Israel’s intensification of its war on Lebanon in March, Aya stayed at her home in Abbasiyeh, in southern Lebanon, despite the risks. At one point, she says, her neighbour’s house was targeted by an Israeli attack.

The attacks have subsided after an ostensible ceasefire was initially announced in April. But the sounds of war have not ceased.

“There’s always drones around and sounds of detonations, but we’ve grown thick skin,” she told Al Jazeera.

In recent weeks, however, fears have intensified around a potential third Israeli intensification since 2024. Many Lebanese are now living in limbo, especially those in areas that previously witnessed intense Israeli attacks.

Aya said her family has prepared extra medication for her grandparents, in case a new round of conflict makes it difficult to obtain. Others are preparing bags and extra food, and keeping their electronic devices charged should the attacks start again.

She also said she would leave her home if Israeli attacks intensified again, rather than stay as she had before.

“I don’t have the energy for this anymore,” she said. Instead, she has been thinking about leaving Lebanon.

“I just can’t handle going through another displacement, especially while watching people around me carry on with their lives as if nothing is happening,” she said. “I know it’s normal, but for me it’s mentally exhausting.”

Fears of an Israeli intensification

The Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah and Israel have been at war since October 2023. Since then, Israel has killed around 9,000 people in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese health ministry, mostly during escalations in the autumn of 2024 and in March and April 2026. Israel invaded Lebanon during each offensive and has since occupied up to 10 kilometres of territory, where it has established a so-called “Yellow Line”. Below that line, Israel continues to destroy towns and villages, while it has already made border areas uninhabitable, possibly for years to come.

A ceasefire was announced in April, just over a week after Israel launched more than 100 attacks on Lebanon in less than 10 minutes, killing more than 350 people. Then in June, Beirut and Tel Aviv signed a US-brokered framework agreement to set up “pilot zones”, as part of which the Israeli military would withdraw from those areas and the Lebanese army would move in to disarm Hezbollah.

Following the ceasefire and framework agreement, active fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has eased, despite Israel’s ongoing attacks and destruction of homes and infrastructure in the far south of Lebanon. Those who live above the Yellow Line are mostly out of the line of fire but hear constant explosions and drones, and at times have struggled to access their land.

In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has reportedly considered launching another round of attacks on Iran, in coordination with Israel. Iran has warned that if such an attack happens, it would retaliate against targets in the region. This has led to questions over whether Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, would return to conducting its own attacks against Israel.

Israeli officials have also accused the Lebanese army of failing to meet its part of the framework deal – something the Lebanese army denies – in what analysts say might be an effort to build justification for another bombing campaign in Lebanon.

“When it comes to Lebanon, Israel doesn’t need that instigation,” Mohamad Bazzi, a Lebanese political analyst, told Al Jazeera. “It destroyed more of the south under the ceasefire of April 17 than before it. Again and again, Israel has shown its willingness to carry out its policies, to destroy as much of south Lebanon as possible, to make it uninhabitable, and to punish the Shia community and there is no reason it won’t do more of the same if the US and Israel restart the Iran war on a large scale.”

Bags packed, batteries charged

In July 2024, Ramez, who did not want to use his real name for security reasons, was sitting in his bedroom in Beirut’s southern suburb of Haret Hreik when he heard loud explosions. Soon after, the neighbouring building collapsed on his apartment.

Since then, he has stayed in his family’s second home, about a half-hour drive southeast of Beirut.

“The war for me never really stopped,” he told Al Jazeera. “Going to sleep is a gamble between insomnia, nightmares or panic attacks. Even if every country in the world disposed of every single bomb and every single bullet and every single gun, the trauma will stay there.”

He said his family has postponed returning to his home in Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, over concerns the attacks could restart. “Personally, I can’t possibly even consider sleeping there without hallucinating the building collapsing in on me again.”

Ramez said he is keeping his batteries and power banks charged, his water supply steady for months and his car’s petrol tank full.

Other people interviewed by Al Jazeera who are from Dahiyeh or the south said they keep go-bags packed.

“People have been planning for a few months,” Karim Safieddine, a non-resident fellow with the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told Al Jazeera. “Dahiyeh hasn’t been filled with people in the past few months. At night, it always empties a bit and everyone has a very, very delicate escape route that’s very quick.”

Economic pain

While general anxiety has gripped many in Lebanon over another round of intense fighting, people are also feeling the economic crunch.

The World Bank said in August that it expects inflation in Lebanon to rise to 17.5 percent this year.

And analysts fear that could have severe security consequences.

“As this cycle repeats itself, people get worn down, exhaust their savings and their goodwill, and I think that adds to the possibility of social explosion,” Bazzi said. “Lebanese society will blame Hezbollah for instigating against Israel and by extension [some will blame] the entire Shia community.”

Jad Dilati, a Lebanese analyst from Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon, said that some families have continued to pay rent for apartments in other parts of Lebanon in order “to secure alternative accommodation in case another war breaks out”.

But after three years of war, he said, “that’s a privilege that not everyone can afford”.

Analysts also warned that another round of fighting could increase sectarian tensions in the country. They say Israel has tried to foment internal strife in Lebanon, often by warning non-Shia communities in the south against hosting displaced people. And with people already barely getting by economically, another round of fighting could cause a sectarian spark.

“It is a combustible mix that could explode through something unexpected,” Bazzi said.